Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's tech market sees major movement with Carlyle's 120% premium bid for Kaonavi, highlighting the stark valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies.</li>
<li>Many Japanese software firms trade at significantly lower multiples (4x) versus US peers (8x), attracting private equity attention.</li>
<li>Japanese stocks ended the week up around 1%. Global macro concerns and inflation lifting bond yields and raising concern over a stronger yen. </li>
</ul>


Japan's tech market sees major movement with Carlyle's 120% premium bid for Kaonavi, highlighting the stark valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies.
Many Japanese software firms trade at significantly lower multiples (4x) versus US peers (8x), attracting private equity attention.
Japanese stocks ended the week up around 1%. Global macro concerns and inflation lifting bond yields and raising concern over a stronger yen. 


Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle's Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a> has been under pressure to improve capital allocation after Value Act bought in 2022. In February 2023, Trend announced a weak sauce capital return policy.</li>
<li>They promised a 100% payout ratio with 70% div payout ratio. But with huge piles of cash and securities, it wasn't going to be enough, and shareholder structure ALWAYS matters.</li>
<li>Here it meant Trend Micro was vulnerable to further attack. Today, Trend announced a HUGE capital return with buyback, and a special div and this will excite Nikkei 225 arbs.</li>
</ul>



Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) has been under pressure to improve capital allocation after Value Act bought in 2022. In February 2023, Trend announced a weak sauce capital return policy.
They promised a 100% payout ratio with 70% div payout ratio. But with huge piles of cash and securities, it wasn't going to be enough, and shareholder structure ALWAYS matters.
Here it meant Trend Micro was vulnerable to further attack. Today, Trend announced a HUGE capital return with buyback, and a special div and this will excite Nikkei 225 arbs.


Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a> will be deleted from a global index at the close on 27 February and passives need to sell a lot of stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a> is the worst performer among its software peers but now trades cheaper on most valuation metrics.</li>
<li>With all the take-private rumours coming to naught, the index deletion and increased real float could result in buyout firms stepping up (or the rumours recommencing!).</li>
</ul>



Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) will be deleted from a global index at the close on 27 February and passives need to sell a lot of stock.

Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) is the worst performer among its software peers but now trades cheaper on most valuation metrics.
With all the take-private rumours coming to naught, the index deletion and increased real float could result in buyout firms stepping up (or the rumours recommencing!).


Trend Micro (4704 JP): Trending Lower as Index Deletion Looms; Take-Private Opportunity?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals </li>
<li>Yields rose on concerns it's going to be a 'one and done' situation after September cuts </li>
<li>Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday - with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action </li>
</ul>


Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals 
Yields rose on concerns it's going to be a 'one and done' situation after September cuts 
Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday - with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action 


Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

<ul>
<li>Nintendo numbers missed although firm doesn't see impact from higher memory prices this year.</li>
<li>Ibiden to invest Y500bn in new production facilities to capture AI demand.</li>
<li>Defense names should rally after US shoots down an Iranian drone.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo numbers missed although firm doesn't see impact from higher memory prices this year.
Ibiden to invest Y500bn in new production facilities to capture AI demand.
Defense names should rally after US shoots down an Iranian drone.


Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Japan

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

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Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle's Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

Carlyle's bid for Kaonavi underscores valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies, attracting private equity interest. Japanese stocks up...

Mark Chadwick

Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip

Trend Micro announced a "big" but softish shareholder return plan in February. It fell a bit flat. Now they have a bigger better one. Looks...

Travis Lundy

Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Software-related weak after Anthropic announced an AI tool that could fully replace existing products. Excessive weakness of Nintendo offers a...

Andrew Jackson

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Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle's Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

​Carlyle's bid for Kaonavi underscores valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies, attracting private equity interest. Japanese stocks up...

Mark Chadwick

Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip

Trend Micro announced a "big" but softish shareholder return plan in February. It fell a bit flat. Now they have a bigger better one. Looks...

Travis Lundy

Trend Micro (4704 JP): Trending Lower as Index Deletion Looms; Take-Private Opportunity?

Trend Micro will be deleted from a global index this month and there is a lot for passives to sell. TM has underperformed peers and now trades...

Brian Freitas

Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

​Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Software-related weak after Anthropic announced an AI tool that could fully replace existing products. Excessive weakness of Nintendo offers a...

Andrew Jackson

Carlyle's bid for Kaonavi underscores valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies, attracting private equity interest. Japanese stocks up...

Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.