Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals </li>
<li>Yields rose on concerns it's going to be a 'one and done' situation after September cuts </li>
<li>Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday - with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action </li>
</ul>


Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals 
Yields rose on concerns it's going to be a 'one and done' situation after September cuts 
Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday - with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action 


Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a> has been under pressure to improve capital allocation after Value Act bought in 2022. In February 2023, Trend announced a weak sauce capital return policy.</li>
<li>They promised a 100% payout ratio with 70% div payout ratio. But with huge piles of cash and securities, it wasn't going to be enough, and shareholder structure ALWAYS matters.</li>
<li>Here it meant Trend Micro was vulnerable to further attack. Today, Trend announced a HUGE capital return with buyback, and a special div and this will excite Nikkei 225 arbs.</li>
</ul>



Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP) has been under pressure to improve capital allocation after Value Act bought in 2022. In February 2023, Trend announced a weak sauce capital return policy.
They promised a 100% payout ratio with 70% div payout ratio. But with huge piles of cash and securities, it wasn't going to be enough, and shareholder structure ALWAYS matters.
Here it meant Trend Micro was vulnerable to further attack. Today, Trend announced a HUGE capital return with buyback, and a special div and this will excite Nikkei 225 arbs.


Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a> filed for an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hexaware-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7882:1" rel="noopener">Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)</a> seeks to raise US$1 billion.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaonavi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29703:1" rel="noopener">Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenhoren-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40227:1" rel="noopener">Zenhoren (5845 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) filed for an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion, and Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) seeks to raise US$1 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP), Zenhoren (5845 JP), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP). 



Weekly Deals Digest (16 Feb) - Trend Micro, Zenhoren, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT, CATL

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>. The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19521:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa (5715 JP)</a> has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.</li>
<li>While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a>'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.

Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc. (4704 JP)</a> shares have hit their daily trade limit, following a <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-buyout-firms-vie-cybersecurity-003204122.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters report</a> that Bain, Advent, KKR, and EQT AB are potential bidders. </li>
<li>The lack of a controlling shareholder and increased cybersecurity M&amp;A activity support the buyout interest. In 4Q2024, cybersecurity M&amp;A reached the highest quarterly volume in the past three years.</li>
<li>The valuation is undemanding. If it trades in line with its median peers’ CY2024 EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiple, it implies JPY11,500-15,000, a 6%- 38% premium to the current price. </li>
</ul>



Trend Micro Inc. (4704 JP) shares have hit their daily trade limit, following a Reuters report that Bain, Advent, KKR, and EQT AB are potential bidders. 
The lack of a controlling shareholder and increased cybersecurity M&amp;A activity support the buyout interest. In 4Q2024, cybersecurity M&amp;A reached the highest quarterly volume in the past three years.
The valuation is undemanding. If it trades in line with its median peers’ CY2024 EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiple, it implies JPY11,500-15,000, a 6%- 38% premium to the current price. 


Trend Micro (4704 JP): Rumoured Buyout Interest Starting to Take Shape

Japan

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

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Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)

Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.

Andrew Jackson

Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip

Trend Micro announced a "big" but softish shareholder return plan in February. It fell a bit flat. Now they have a bigger better one. Looks...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Feb) - Trend Micro, Zenhoren, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT, CATL

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Trend Micro, Kaonavi, Zenhoren, Get Nice Fin, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT) and ECM...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Trend Micro (4704 JP): Rumoured Buyout Interest Starting to Take Shape

The valuation is undemanding. If it trades in line with its median peers’ CY2024 EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiple, it implies JPY11,500-15,000, a 6%...

Arun George

Price Gauge

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Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

​Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.

Andrew Jackson

Trend Micro BIG Bonanza But Shareholder AND Balance Sheet Structure Matter. N225 Divs Get a Fillip

Trend Micro announced a "big" but softish shareholder return plan in February. It fell a bit flat. Now they have a bigger better one. Looks...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Feb) - Trend Micro, Zenhoren, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT, CATL

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Trend Micro, Kaonavi, Zenhoren, Get Nice Fin, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT) and ECM...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Trend Micro (4704 JP): Rumoured Buyout Interest Starting to Take Shape

The valuation is undemanding. If it trades in line with its median peers’ CY2024 EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiple, it implies JPY11,500-15,000, a 6%...

Arun George

Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.