Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> has had a disastrous year, ever since the IPO of their FinTech arm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a>, was pulled last minute in November 2020. Since then, they have faced continued regulatory hurdles, including an RMB18.2bn anti-monopoly fine, which has culminated in a 51% share price drop, since its November 2020 peak, which means that Alibaba is currently trading on only a 14.3x forward PE ratio. Given that this is nearly 4 standard deviations below its 5-year historical average trading range, and that this multiple would imply only a 0.72x PEG ratio, for a company with an extremely strong net cash balance sheet, delivering returns on capital well above its cost of capital, with positive free cash flow generation, and a $15bn share buyback program, indicates that there is a massive disconnect between long-term Buy-side expectations and near-term Sell-side estimates. Looking at the reported group financials over this period it does not seem as though the regulatory impact has been that significant on core operations. The key concern, however, is that Alibaba is losing market share in its core businesses. In this insight, I take a closer look at the broader Chinese retail market, as well as the Chinese digital advertising market (I estimate that Alibaba still generates more than 40% of its Chinese commerce revenue, and roughly 1/3rd of group revenue, from marketing activities), to analyse Alibaba’s relative revenue share loss. Finally, I also revisit current valuation levels and analyse what this implies for its Core Commerce operations.

Alibaba Group (9988 HK) has had a disastrous year, ever since the IPO of their FinTech arm, Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK), was pulled last minute in November 2020. Since then, they have faced continued regulatory hurdles, including an RMB18.2bn anti-monopoly fine, which has culminated in a 51% share price drop, since its November 2020 peak, which means that Alibaba is currently trading on only a 14.3x forward PE ratio. Given that this is nearly 4 standard deviations below its 5-year historical average trading range, and that this multiple would imply only a 0.72x PEG ratio, for a company with an extremely strong net cash balance sheet, delivering returns on capital well above its cost of capital, with positive free cash flow generation, and a $15bn share buyback program, indicates that there is a massive disconnect between long-term Buy-side expectations and near-term Sell-side estimates. Looking at the reported group financials over this period it does not seem as though the regulatory impact has been that significant on core operations. The key concern, however, is that Alibaba is losing market share in its core businesses. In this insight, I take a closer look at the broader Chinese retail market, as well as the Chinese digital advertising market (I estimate that Alibaba still generates more than 40% of its Chinese commerce revenue, and roughly 1/3rd of group revenue, from marketing activities), to analyse Alibaba’s relative revenue share loss. Finally, I also revisit current valuation levels and analyse what this implies for its Core Commerce operations.

Alibaba: How Much Core Market Share Loss Has Been Priced In?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huawei-technologies-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8231:1" rel="noopener">Huawei Technology (40978Z CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1439927D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-pay-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29675:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay (377300 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooredoo-q-s-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24199:1" rel="noopener">Ooredoo Q.S.C (ORDS QD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:Tencent (700 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Huawei Technology (40978Z CH), ByteDance (1439927D CH), Baidu (9888 HK), Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK), TSMC (2330 TT), Kakao Corp (035720 KS), Kakao Pay (377300 KS), Ooredoo Q.S.C (ORDS QD), CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 17 September 2021

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

What was the real reason for the Financial Supervisory Service's request to Kakao Pay to revise the securities report? At first, we all thought it was a price adequacy problem due to excessive valuation. However, Kakao Pay revised down the price band by only 4-6%.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Indicative price band revision"}'>Indicative price band revision</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Previous"}'>Previous</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Revised"}'>Revised</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Change in %"}'>Change in %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Lower end"}'>Lower end</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":63000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"\"₩\"#,##0","3":1}'>₩63,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"\"₩\"#,##0","3":1}'>₩60,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.047619047619047616}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-2]">4.76%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Upper end"}'>Upper end</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":96000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"\"₩\"#,##0","3":1}'>₩96,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":90000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"\"₩\"#,##0","3":1}'>₩90,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0625}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-2]">6.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>If the FSS really requested a price revision, this level (4-6%) of price revision doesn't really make sense. In fact, in terms of valuation, Kakao Bank caused more serious controversy. Nonetheless, the Financial Supervisory Service requested only Kakao Pay to revise the securities report, which, of course, is quite questionable. All this implies that the real reason shouldn't be valuation.Surely, including Paypal and Square in the valuation peer group is absurd. Therefore, Kakao Pay excluded them and selected two new companies as valuation peers. However, that still leaves the question of whether these new valuation peers are suitable as valuation peers. This is because they are not free from the controversy over whether the business and financial similarities are sufficient.If there were a meaningful level of price adjustment, the FSS's request for correction would have been more understandable, but it was not the case. So we should come to one conclusion. The valuation issue was secondary, and the key reason was something else. And this is also the general view of the local street at this point.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/227/830/original/Screen+Shot+2021-09-04+at+2.08.04+AM.png?1630739968" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="227830"></figure></section>

What was the real reason for the Financial Supervisory Service's request to Kakao Pay to revise the securities report? At first, we all thought it was a price adequacy problem due to excessive valuation. However, Kakao Pay revised down the price band by only 4-6%.








Indicative price band revision
Previous
Revised
Change in %


Lower end
₩63,000
₩60,000
4.76%


Upper end
₩96,000
₩90,000
6.25%

Source: DART

If the FSS really requested a price revision, this level (4-6%) of price revision doesn't really make sense. In fact, in terms of valuation, Kakao Bank caused more serious controversy. Nonetheless, the Financial Supervisory Service requested only Kakao Pay to revise the securities report, which, of course, is quite questionable. All this implies that the real reason shouldn't be valuation.Surely, including Paypal and Square in the valuation peer group is absurd. Therefore, Kakao Pay excluded them and selected two new companies as valuation peers. However, that still leaves the question of whether these new valuation peers are suitable as valuation peers. This is because they are not free from the controversy over whether the business and financial similarities are sufficient.If there were a meaningful level of price adjustment, the FSS's request for correction would have been more understandable, but it was not the case. So we should come to one conclusion. The valuation issue was secondary, and the key reason was something else. And this is also the general view of the local street at this point.

Ant Group's Regulatory Risks in China Must Be Reflected in Kakao Pay's IPO Valuation

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

This Original aims to showcase the leading Insurtech companies in the three insurance markets with the highest growth potential in Asia - China, India, and Southeast Asia.Insurtech companies can be broadly divided into three categories - full-stack Inustech, Insurtech marketplace, and Insurtech enablers. As such, the Original also presents the Insurtech companies based on these categories by showing their company overview, how they leverage tech to do things differently, their product offerings, and financial information (capital raise and valuation in case of no financial information).The Insurtech companies presented are:<ul><li>Full-stack Insurtech: ZhongAn Online (China), Acko (India), SingLife (Singapore)</li><li>Insurtech marketplace: Waterdrop (China), Huize (China), Policybazaar (India), Coverfox (India), Turtlemint (India), PasarPolis (Indonesia), PolicyStreet (Malaysia)</li><li>Insurtech enablers: eBaoTech (China), Turtlemint (India), CXA Group (Singapore)  </li></ul>By analyzing the key Insurtech companies and their development in these countries/regions, we have further identified the following key trends/themes in the sector:<ul><li>In the near future, Insurtech is unlikely a threat to traditional (re)insurers who have also been actively investing in Insurtech themselves.</li><li>Insurtech marketplace is expanding offline and will likely embrace a hybrid model, especially in less developed insurance markets.</li><li>L&amp;H full-stack Insurtech companies are yet to be common in less developed insurance markets.</li><li>Insurtech is going to promote differentiated growth in insurance markets of different maturity.</li><li>“ReInsurtech” is currently still a blind spot.</li></ul><h2>What is Original?</h2>A deep dive into 12 (mostly private) leading Insurtech companies, under each Insurtech category from China, India, and Southeast Asia, is presented in this Original. Key investment thesis and risks are also developed for each company.  Based on the company analysis and the broader insurance and Insurtech development in these countries/regions, five key Insurtech trends and themes are further identified.

This Original aims to showcase the leading Insurtech companies in the three insurance markets with the highest growth potential in Asia - China, India, and Southeast Asia.Insurtech companies can be broadly divided into three categories - full-stack Inustech, Insurtech marketplace, and Insurtech enablers. As such, the Original also presents the Insurtech companies based on these categories by showing their company overview, how they leverage tech to do things differently, their product offerings, and financial information (capital raise and valuation in case of no financial information).The Insurtech companies presented are:Full-stack Insurtech: ZhongAn Online (China), Acko (India), SingLife (Singapore)Insurtech marketplace: Waterdrop (China), Huize (China), Policybazaar (India), Coverfox (India), Turtlemint (India), PasarPolis (Indonesia), PolicyStreet (Malaysia)Insurtech enablers: eBaoTech (China), Turtlemint (India), CXA Group (Singapore)  By analyzing the key Insurtech companies and their development in these countries/regions, we have further identified the following key trends/themes in the sector:In the near future, Insurtech is unlikely a threat to traditional (re)insurers who have also been actively investing in Insurtech themselves.Insurtech marketplace is expanding offline and will likely embrace a hybrid model, especially in less developed insurance markets.L&amp;H full-stack Insurtech companies are yet to be common in less developed insurance markets.Insurtech is going to promote differentiated growth in insurance markets of different maturity.“ReInsurtech” is currently still a blind spot.What is Original?A deep dive into 12 (mostly private) leading Insurtech companies, under each Insurtech category from China, India, and Southeast Asia, is presented in this Original. Key investment thesis and risks are also developed for each company.  Based on the company analysis and the broader insurance and Insurtech development in these countries/regions, five key Insurtech trends and themes are further identified. 

Asian Insurtech: The New Golden Child in Town?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

Most Chinese companies will announce their half yearly results in the next couple of weeks. Some will announce their interim dividends as well.With most of the dividends for 2021 having already gone ex, we see little upside/downside in the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures contract.The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are another story though. There are a lot of potential events that could change the fair value of the futures. Taking into account all the changes expected to take place by the December rebalance, we see the current dividend futures market trading around 6 index points higher than our fair value. In terms of future events, we find a lot more potential negative catalysts as compared to positive catalysts.We recommend selling the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures at 245 or higher (equivalent to around -25 on the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener) and buying the dividend futures at 230 or lower. These estimates will change as the CNYHKD fx rates move around and some of the catalysts come to pass.

Most Chinese companies will announce their half yearly results in the next couple of weeks. Some will announce their interim dividends as well.With most of the dividends for 2021 having already gone ex, we see little upside/downside in the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures contract.The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are another story though. There are a lot of potential events that could change the fair value of the futures. Taking into account all the changes expected to take place by the December rebalance, we see the current dividend futures market trading around 6 index points higher than our fair value. In terms of future events, we find a lot more potential negative catalysts as compared to positive catalysts.We recommend selling the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures at 245 or higher (equivalent to around -25 on the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener) and buying the dividend futures at 230 or lower. These estimates will change as the CNYHKD fx rates move around and some of the catalysts come to pass.

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value & Catalysts Point to Downside for 2022

China

Ant Group Co., Ltd. develops online payment platforms. The Company produces credit system and financial services platforms which provide consumers and small businesses with safe and convenient inclusive financial services globally. Ant Group provides its services worldwide.

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Ant Group (6688 HK)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 17 September 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Ant Group's Regulatory Risks in China Must Be Reflected in Kakao Pay's IPO Valuation

This post explains why Ant Group's regulatory risks by the Chinese authorities must be reflected in Kakao Pay's IPO valuation.

Sanghyun Park

Asian Insurtech: The New Golden Child in Town?

A deep dive into 12 Insurtech companies in China, India, and Southeast Asia is presented in this Original. The key Insurtech trends and themes in...

Alec Tseung

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value & Catalysts Point to Downside for 2022

We see around 6 points of downside on the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures from the last traded price. There are more negative catalysts for the 2022...

Brian Freitas

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Alibaba: How Much Core Market Share Loss Has Been Priced In?

In this insight, I analyse Chinese retail sales and digital advertising market share changes and what is implied by Alibaba’s current valuation...

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 17 September 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Ant Group's Regulatory Risks in China Must Be Reflected in Kakao Pay's IPO Valuation

This post explains why Ant Group's regulatory risks by the Chinese authorities must be reflected in Kakao Pay's IPO valuation.

Sanghyun Park

Asian Insurtech: The New Golden Child in Town?

A deep dive into 12 Insurtech companies in China, India, and Southeast Asia is presented in this Original. The key Insurtech trends and themes in...

Alec Tseung

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value & Catalysts Point to Downside for 2022

We see around 6 points of downside on the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures from the last traded price. There are more negative catalysts for the 2022...

Brian Freitas