High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Anthropic is a reckless and entitled AI start-up, symbolic of a tech industry that is completely out of control and drunk on its own success.</li><li>A judge in California just ruled that they can use copyrighted data without permission to train their models.</li><li>This allows them to make money of other people’s works without compensating them adequately.</li></ul>

Anthropic is a reckless and entitled AI start-up, symbolic of a tech industry that is completely out of control and drunk on its own success.A judge in California just ruled that they can use copyrighted data without permission to train their models.This allows them to make money of other people’s works without compensating them adequately.

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Zapier is betting that they can ride the AI and MCP wave in much the same way it rode the SaaS and API proliferation wave—by offering less &amp; non-technical users the tools they need to stitch together different products, it&#39;ll help prosumers and SMBs eat up the long-tail use cases that horizontal and vertical AIs leave on the table.</li><li>Pushing back on the one-model-to-rule-them-all narrative, Zapier is positioning for a highly fragmented world of niche &amp; specialized agents, where it’s the scaffolding built around the LLMs—featuring traditional deterministic workflows—that drives agent reliability, cost savings and performance.</li><li>The enterprise presents a new, upmarket opportunity for Zapier (historically focused on prosumer &amp; SMBs), where shallow AI usage has plagued widespread attempts at AI transformation and Zapier’s pre-baked workflows can translate what’s worked for teams &amp; departments across organizational boundaries.</li></ul>

Zapier is betting that they can ride the AI and MCP wave in much the same way it rode the SaaS and API proliferation wave—by offering less &amp; non-technical users the tools they need to stitch together different products, it&#39;ll help prosumers and SMBs eat up the long-tail use cases that horizontal and vertical AIs leave on the table.Pushing back on the one-model-to-rule-them-all narrative, Zapier is positioning for a highly fragmented world of niche &amp; specialized agents, where it’s the scaffolding built around the LLMs—featuring traditional deterministic workflows—that drives agent reliability, cost savings and performance.The enterprise presents a new, upmarket opportunity for Zapier (historically focused on prosumer &amp; SMBs), where shallow AI usage has plagued widespread attempts at AI transformation and Zapier’s pre-baked workflows can translate what’s worked for teams &amp; departments across organizational boundaries.

Wade Foster, co-founder & CEO Of Zapier, On AI Agent Orchestration

<ul><li>Vibe coding is accelerating the output of both code and bugs, creating the need to get test coverage across new features faster and driving the rise of developer-native “vibe testing” tools like Momentic, Antithesis ($77M raised, Amplify Partners), QA Wolf ($56M raised, Inspired Capital) and Qodo ($50M raised, Susa Ventures) that translate natural language into code and bundle in test generation, auto-repair when the UI changes, and observability.</li><li>As writing end-to-end tests becomes faster and easier, it’s moving out of QA teams and into the entire engineering organization, turning testing from post-hoc validation to always-on developer infrastructure and creating the opportunity to merge together once-separate categories like CI test checks (GitLab), browser automation (BrowserStack), observability (Datadog) and QA outsourcing (Applause) into one unified platform for validating that software actually works.</li><li>One of our customers saw a 5x speed improvement in time to automate moving from Playwright to Momentic. We were able to see some very drastic reliability improvements moving from Cypress to Momentic as well.</li></ul>

Vibe coding is accelerating the output of both code and bugs, creating the need to get test coverage across new features faster and driving the rise of developer-native “vibe testing” tools like Momentic, Antithesis ($77M raised, Amplify Partners), QA Wolf ($56M raised, Inspired Capital) and Qodo ($50M raised, Susa Ventures) that translate natural language into code and bundle in test generation, auto-repair when the UI changes, and observability.As writing end-to-end tests becomes faster and easier, it’s moving out of QA teams and into the entire engineering organization, turning testing from post-hoc validation to always-on developer infrastructure and creating the opportunity to merge together once-separate categories like CI test checks (GitLab), browser automation (BrowserStack), observability (Datadog) and QA outsourcing (Applause) into one unified platform for validating that software actually works.One of our customers saw a 5x speed improvement in time to automate moving from Playwright to Momentic. We were able to see some very drastic reliability improvements moving from Cypress to Momentic as well.

Wei-Wei Wu, CEO Of Momentic, On AI-native end-to-end Testing

<ul><li>Three form factors for AI agents are emerging—browser-based &amp; mobile apps (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity) with easy distribution and app-level integrations, native apps with OS-level integrations & OS forks (Perplexity Assistant, Granola, Wafer) that unlock deeper awareness across a user’s apps and data but face distribution challenges, and purpose-built AI hardware devices (Friend, Rabbit) with novel interaction patterns.</li><li>OpenAI’s hardware projects and Perplexity’s new Android assistant are attacking the OS-level AI assistant layer where Google and Apple’s app store–based business models—built on developers giving up a 30% cut in exchange for distribution—make it structurally difficult for Google and Apple themselves to route users around apps entirely.</li><li>Android’s open ecosystem structure represents a huge opportunity for AI-first computing, with custom assistants (Perplexity), launchers (Microsoft Launcher), and full-on forks (Wafer, /dev/agents) potentially providing Samsung and the 96% of non-Google Android OEMs with the firepower to build the first AI-native smartphone experience.</li></ul>

Three form factors for AI agents are emerging—browser-based &amp; mobile apps (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity) with easy distribution and app-level integrations, native apps with OS-level integrations & OS forks (Perplexity Assistant, Granola, Wafer) that unlock deeper awareness across a user’s apps and data but face distribution challenges, and purpose-built AI hardware devices (Friend, Rabbit) with novel interaction patterns.OpenAI’s hardware projects and Perplexity’s new Android assistant are attacking the OS-level AI assistant layer where Google and Apple’s app store–based business models—built on developers giving up a 30% cut in exchange for distribution—make it structurally difficult for Google and Apple themselves to route users around apps entirely.Android’s open ecosystem structure represents a huge opportunity for AI-first computing, with custom assistants (Perplexity), launchers (Microsoft Launcher), and full-on forks (Wafer, /dev/agents) potentially providing Samsung and the 96% of non-Google Android OEMs with the firepower to build the first AI-native smartphone experience.

Sam Hall, CEO Of Wafer, On AI Agent Form Factors

<ul><li>Windsurf, launched out of the AI research company Codeium, is a VS Code–based development environment with agentic editing tools and chat-driven workflows that let developers write, refactor, and deploy code using natural language.</li><li>Windsurf is the #2 AI-native IDE at $40M ARR as of February 2025, roughly 5x smaller than Cursor, which hit $200M ARR in March 2025 after doubling from $100M at the end of 2024—OpenAI’s $3B offer for Windsurf values it at about 75x ARR vs. Cursor’s 50x forward, showing how aggressively it's moving to close the gap.</li><li>Buying Windsurf jumpstarts OpenAI’s push into coding tools with an existing IDE that supports million-line codebases and streams 100B+ daily code-edit tokens—high-quality RLHF data that reduces its reliance on vendors like Scale and strengthens its position in coding alignment vs. Anthropic.</li></ul>

Windsurf, launched out of the AI research company Codeium, is a VS Code–based development environment with agentic editing tools and chat-driven workflows that let developers write, refactor, and deploy code using natural language.Windsurf is the #2 AI-native IDE at $40M ARR as of February 2025, roughly 5x smaller than Cursor, which hit $200M ARR in March 2025 after doubling from $100M at the end of 2024—OpenAI’s $3B offer for Windsurf values it at about 75x ARR vs. Cursor’s 50x forward, showing how aggressively it's moving to close the gap.Buying Windsurf jumpstarts OpenAI’s push into coding tools with an existing IDE that supports million-line codebases and streams 100B+ daily code-edit tokens—high-quality RLHF data that reduces its reliance on vendors like Scale and strengthens its position in coding alignment vs. Anthropic.

United States

Anthropic, PBC operates as an AI safety and research company. The Company builds reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems. Anthropic serves customers in the United States.

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Anthropic (1892140D US)

Anthropic's to Every One of Us

Anthropic is a reckless and entitled AI start-up, symbolic of a tech industry that is completely out of control and drunk on its own success.

Fallacy Alarm

Wade Foster, co-founder & CEO Of Zapier, On AI Agent Orchestration

What are the clearest discontinuities you've seen in the way Zapier is used pre—and post-AI...

Sacra

Wei-Wei Wu, CEO Of Momentic, On AI-native end-to-end Testing

In short, what is Momentic...

Sacra

Sam Hall, CEO Of Wafer, On AI Agent Form Factors

We’ve written about Granola, the desktop app that uses system audio to launch & record meetings and Rewind (now Limitless), the desktop app that...

Sacra

Why OpenAI Wants Windsurf

TL;DR: OpenAI’s reported $3B bid for Windsurf underscores a shift from API monetization to vertically integrated full-stack products as labs race...

Sacra

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