Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper prices rebounded last week by 5.6% YoY amid optimism over peace talks with Iran/US and a very small <a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/china-moves-ban-sulphuric-acid-exports-iran-war-hits-supply" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cost push from China's ban on sulphuric acid</a> exports.</li>
<li>Unfortunately, over the weekend, it was announced that there has been <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-trump-iran-hormuz-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-talks-pakistan-rcna285140" target="_blank" rel="noopener">no resolution in the peace talks</a> between the countries, which we believe will weigh on copper prices.</li>
<li>We see copper hit the 11k USD/ton level in the short term, as over 1 million tons of the metal are to be destocked on exchanges. </li>
</ul>


Copper prices rebounded last week by 5.6% YoY amid optimism over peace talks with Iran/US and a very small cost push from China's ban on sulphuric acid exports.
Unfortunately, over the weekend, it was announced that there has been no resolution in the peace talks between the countries, which we believe will weigh on copper prices.
We see copper hit the 11k USD/ton level in the short term, as over 1 million tons of the metal are to be destocked on exchanges. 


Copper: No Resolution To The Peace Talks + High Inventories = Destock And Lower Prices

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11135">Fmc Corp (FMC US)</a> announced that it will increase lithium production on the back of a long term supplier contract with a major electric vehicle ("EV") manufacturer.FMC is one of four of the world's largest producers of lithium and it has inked a multi year supply agreement with a EV manufacturer. FMC will produce an additional 4,000 tons of lithium hydroxide next year raising the total production capacity to roughly 18,000 tons a year.The value chain begins with the extraction of lithium…

Fmc Corp (FMC US) announced that it will increase lithium production on the back of a long term supplier contract with a major electric vehicle ("EV") manufacturer.FMC is one of four of the world's largest producers of lithium and it has inked a multi year supply agreement with a EV manufacturer. FMC will produce an additional 4,000 tons of lithium hydroxide next year raising the total production capacity to roughly 18,000 tons a year.The value chain begins with the extraction of lithium…

Lithium Hydroxide up 38% YTD; FMC Increases Lithium Production

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen the worst slump in prices in 20 years and some commodities have been trading at multi-year lows. Lithium has defied the price decline and is currently trading at record highs which has sparked investor interest. This article covers the basics of the lithium industry, its demand and supply mechanics as well as its outlook five years hence.

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen the worst slump in prices in 20 years and some commodities have been trading at multi-year lows. Lithium has defied the price decline and is currently trading at record highs which has sparked investor interest. This article covers the basics of the lithium industry, its demand and supply mechanics as well as its outlook five years hence.

Lithium - An Outlier Among Sinking Commodities

<ul>
<li>The US government launched <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/trump-stockpile-critical-minerals-reserve-project-vault.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Project Vault, </a>an initiative to stockpile 12 bn USD worth of critical minerals, and copper was included in the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/news/science-snippet/interior-department-releases-final-2025-list-critical-minerals" target="_blank" rel="noopener">USGS</a> list.</li>
<li>We believe this would embolden traders to also stockpile on the COMEX, where inventory levels are almost approaching 600k tons (&gt;25% of US demand). </li>
<li>Long-Term, we are bullish on copper, but the short-term stockpile trade is now back in vogue. We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


The US government launched Project Vault, an initiative to stockpile 12 bn USD worth of critical minerals, and copper was included in the USGS list.
We believe this would embolden traders to also stockpile on the COMEX, where inventory levels are almost approaching 600k tons (&gt;25% of US demand). 
Long-Term, we are bullish on copper, but the short-term stockpile trade is now back in vogue. We like Southern Copper (SCCO US) / Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Launch of Project Vault to Change Short-Term: Copper Back to 14k USD/Ton In Play

<ul>
<li>Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/bhp-abandons-anglo-american-approach-says-own-growth-plan-compelling-2025-11-23/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP-Anglo merger </a>was followed by the successful <a href="https://www.angloamerican.com/investors/anglo-american-teck-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anglo-Teck</a> merger and, more recently, the revived <a href="https://www.afr.com/rich-list/ivan-glasenberg-s-wealth-tops-21b-on-rio-glencore-mega-merger-talks-20260114-p5ntvp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rio-Glencore merger</a> talks.</li>
<li>Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.</li>
<li>Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.</li>
</ul>


Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed BHP-Anglo merger was followed by the successful Anglo-Teck merger and, more recently, the revived Rio-Glencore merger talks.
Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.
Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.


Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc is a Chilean multinational conglomerate primarily focused on copper mining, with operations concentrated in Chile. The company operates four copper mines, producing copper cathodes and concentrates, along with gold, silver, and molybdenum as by-products. Additionally, it has a transport division providing rail and road cargo services for mining customers in northern Chile. Antofagasta was incorporated in London in 1888 and is headquartered in London, England.

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Antofagasta (ANTO LN)

Copper: No Resolution To The Peace Talks + High Inventories = Destock And Lower Prices

Copper markets will remain extremely volatile as TACO keeps switching on and off, with the latest negotiations making little headway and inventory...

Sameer Taneja

Lithium Hydroxide up 38% YTD; FMC Increases Lithium Production

Fmc Corp (FMC US) announced that it will increase lithium production on the back of a long term supplier contract with a major electric...

Ishita Jain

Lithium - An Outlier Among Sinking Commodities

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen...

Ishita Jain

Launch of Project Vault to Change Short-Term: Copper Back to 14k USD/Ton In Play

The US launch of Project Vault (USD 12bn critical-mineral stockpile) last week materially shifts the near‑term copper outlook to extremely bullish....

Sameer Taneja

Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

The pursuit of critical minerals by corporations and countries (China, USA) is driving animal spirits in the copper market. We highlight our top...

Sameer Taneja

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