Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper prices closed above $9,000 per ton once more and are poised for short-term gains as the outlook on China's economic recovery becomes more favorable.</li>
<li>The COMEX spread has hit a 12-week high, nearly reaching $1,000 per ton, as traders expressed concerns about copper potentially being included in the Trump administration's blanket levies.</li>
<li>We favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>  due to their greater copper exposure, higher ROCEs, and robust long-term expansion strategies.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices closed above $9,000 per ton once more and are poised for short-term gains as the outlook on China's economic recovery becomes more favorable.
The COMEX spread has hit a 12-week high, nearly reaching $1,000 per ton, as traders expressed concerns about copper potentially being included in the Trump administration's blanket levies.
We favor Southern Copper (SCCO US)  and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)  due to their greater copper exposure, higher ROCEs, and robust long-term expansion strategies.


Copper Tracker 10th Feb 2025: Comex Spreads Bullish, Commentary on China Improving

<ul>
<li><span>This is a follow-up to our initiation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/antofagasta-anto-ln-an-initiation-on-a-mid-sized-copper-miner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner</a>, in which we provide some positive updates. </span></li>
<li>The company guided a full-year copper production of 660-700k for FY25 (in line with expectations) and slightly higher gross YoY costs at the upper end (but better than street expectations).</li>
<li>The long-term production plan of 900,000 tons by 2027 puts it under 5x EV-EBITDA for FY27 at spot prices (vs. the current 7.8x).</li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up to our initiation on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN): Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner, in which we provide some positive updates. 
The company guided a full-year copper production of 660-700k for FY25 (in line with expectations) and slightly higher gross YoY costs at the upper end (but better than street expectations).
The long-term production plan of 900,000 tons by 2027 puts it under 5x EV-EBITDA for FY27 at spot prices (vs. the current 7.8x).


Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025

<ul>
<li>Copper prices finished up over 9000 USD/ton again this week after hovering around 3-5% of that level for close to a month. </li>
<li>The COMEX spread has reached a 10-week high, while the Yangshan premium shows signs of investor bullishness as it closes in on the 80 USD/ton. </li>
<li>With better TSF numbers from China and a slightly more optimistic picture of demand, we head into 2025 feeling better about copper pricing. </li>
</ul>


Copper prices finished up over 9000 USD/ton again this week after hovering around 3-5% of that level for close to a month. 
The COMEX spread has reached a 10-week high, while the Yangshan premium shows signs of investor bullishness as it closes in on the 80 USD/ton. 
With better TSF numbers from China and a slightly more optimistic picture of demand, we head into 2025 feeling better about copper pricing. 


Copper Tracker 20th Jan 2025: Encouraging China TSF Numbers To Boost Future Demand?

<ul>
<li>We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply. </li>
<li>We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.</li>
<li>We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We expect copper demand to have ended FY24 at around 27.1 million tons (up 4% year over year). FY25 could be an interesting year in which copper demand outstrips supply. 
We expect China to have about 15.3 million tons of demand (flattish year over year) in FY24. The stimulus will be crucial for growth in overall copper FY25 demand.
We continue to expand our coverage of pure copper play names, with our favorites being Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year

First Quantum Minerals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.</li>
<li>Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.</li>
<li>We initiated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>. For more details, read our insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/first-quantum-minerals-fm-cn-call-option-on-cobre-panama" target="_blank" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?</a> </li>
</ul>


China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 


Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc owns and operates copper mines in Chile and conducts exploration activities in Chile and Peru.  The Group also operates a rail network servicing the mining region of northern Chile, as well as operates a concession for the distribution of water in this region.

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Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)

Copper Tracker 10th Feb 2025: Comex Spreads Bullish, Commentary on China Improving

The COMEX spread has risen to a 12-week high, approaching $1,000 per ton. With an improved outlook for China, short-term gains in copper prices are...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025

We provide updates for Antofagasta after its Q4 2024 operational update and before the release of its FY24 earnings on the 18th of February 2024.

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 20th Jan 2025: Encouraging China TSF Numbers To Boost Future Demand?

We highlight the expanding bullish spreads of COMEX and Yangshan for copper. We highlight the bullish narrative and provide updates on stocks in...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 6th Jan 2025: What Lies In Store For The Year

We summarize our estimates for copper demand for FY25. Market participants are increasingly bullish on copper, but China's demand must pick up for...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

With the uninspiring China TSF number and the CEWC's release of stimulus measures that haven't inspired confidence in market participants, what do...

Sameer Taneja

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