Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

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<ul>
<li>H1 FY26 EBITDA rose 27% to $2.84bn on a 36% higher realized copper price, with margin widening five points to 63.4%, among the sector's highest.</li>
<li>Group copper guidance cut to 625-655kt on the Los Pelambres weather event, but every asset-level line, gold, molybdenum, and capex guidance is unchanged.</li>
<li>FY26e EV/EBITDA of 8.6x falling to 7.6x FY27e, P/E 25.7x to 22.5x, on FY27e copper sales of 762.5kt.</li>
</ul>


H1 FY26 EBITDA rose 27% to $2.84bn on a 36% higher realized copper price, with margin widening five points to 63.4%, among the sector's highest.
Group copper guidance cut to 625-655kt on the Los Pelambres weather event, but every asset-level line, gold, molybdenum, and capex guidance is unchanged.
FY26e EV/EBITDA of 8.6x falling to 7.6x FY27e, P/E 25.7x to 22.5x, on FY27e copper sales of 762.5kt.


Antofagasta Plc (ANTO LN): : H1 FY2026 Results, Guidance Rebased On Weather, Thesis Intact

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<ul>
  <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc">Antofagasta</a> is a pure-play copper producer with high-quality, long-life assets geographically concentrated in Chile, a premier mining jurisdiction.</li>
  <li>The company is well-positioned to benefit from the strong long-term demand outlook for copper, driven by global decarbonization and electrification trends. However, its financial performance remains highly sensitive to volatile copper prices and operational performance.</li>
  <li>Significant near-term production growth is expected from key projects, including the Centinela Second Concentrator, but the company faces headwinds from rising input costs and potential changes to Chile's mining royalty regime.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
Antofagasta is a pure-play copper producer with high-quality, long-life assets geographically concentrated in Chile, a premier mining jurisdiction.
  The company is well-positioned to benefit from the strong long-term demand outlook for copper, driven by global decarbonization and electrification trends. However, its financial performance remains highly sensitive to volatile copper prices and operational performance.
  Significant near-term production growth is expected from key projects, including the Centinela Second Concentrator, but the company faces headwinds from rising input costs and potential changes to Chile's mining royalty regime.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

<ul>
<li>Copper production held steady at 142kt QoQ; gold (46.3koz) and molybdenum (3.1kt) were also in line, though H1 copper of 285kt fell 9% YoY.</li>
<li>Net cash costs of $1.36/lb rose 26% QoQ on higher input costs; H1 net costs of $1.22/lb fell 8% YoY, aided by by-product credits.</li>
<li>Record copper prices ($6.57/lb realized) supported the quarter; growth projects remain on track for commissioning next year, targeting a 30% increase in production.</li>
</ul>


Copper production held steady at 142kt QoQ; gold (46.3koz) and molybdenum (3.1kt) were also in line, though H1 copper of 285kt fell 9% YoY.
Net cash costs of $1.36/lb rose 26% QoQ on higher input costs; H1 net costs of $1.22/lb fell 8% YoY, aided by by-product credits.
Record copper prices ($6.57/lb realized) supported the quarter; growth projects remain on track for commissioning next year, targeting a 30% increase in production.


Antofagasta Q2 2026: Steady Volumes, Record Copper Prices

<ul>
<li>In our previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-to-end-the-year-with-seasonal-strength-onward-to-12-000-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206735" rel="noopener">Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton</a>, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. </li>
</ul>


In our previous insight Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. 

Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.
FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. 


Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.mining.com/all-missing-workers-found-dead-at-freeports-grasberg-mine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspension of the Grasberg mine</a> following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. </li>
<li>The mine is expected to come back on stream, "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/grasberg-disaster-highlights-fragility-copper-supply-chain-2025-09-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tentatively" only in 2027</a>, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.</li>
<li>Following the challenges of the<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sVtkOQyOiI" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> El Teniente mine of Codelco</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe mines</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. </li>
</ul>


The suspension of the Grasberg mine following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. 
The mine is expected to come back on stream, "tentatively" only in 2027, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.
Following the challenges of the El Teniente mine of Codelco and the Ivanhoe mines, we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. 


Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc is a Chilean multinational conglomerate primarily focused on copper mining, with operations concentrated in Chile. The company operates four copper mines, producing copper cathodes and concentrates, along with gold, silver, and molybdenum as by-products. Additionally, it has a transport division providing rail and road cargo services for mining customers in northern Chile. Antofagasta was incorporated in London in 1888 and is headquartered in London, England.

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Antofagasta (ANTO LN)

Antofagasta Plc (ANTO LN): : H1 FY2026 Results, Guidance Rebased On Weather, Thesis Intact

Pure-play Tier 1 copper at a 63% margin, with 30% volume growth commissioning in 2027 and a 2026 cut that is weather, not asset, driven.

Sameer Taneja

Primer: Antofagasta (ANTO LN) - Aug 2026

Antofagasta is a pure-play copper producer with high-quality, long-life assets geographically concentrated in Chile, a premier mining...

αSK Primers

Antofagasta Q2 2026: Steady Volumes, Record Copper Prices

Antofagasta delivered steady Q2 copper output of 142kt at record realized prices, with full-year guidance intact and major growth projects on track...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

Copper has just passed 11,000 USD/ton. We believe we are still at the nascent stages of our bullish call on copper, and the next stop is 12,000 USD...

Sameer Taneja

Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton

The Grasberg fiasco is becoming a critical part of the copper story, with a likely hit to 3% of global supply until 2027, "tentatively". We believe...

Sameer Taneja

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