Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While tariff headlines may dominate, accumulate the miners on weakness</li>
<li>The positive Supply and Demand drivers for copper are  still intact</li>
<li>Latest tariffs add to the continued inflationary pulse around the world</li>
</ul>


While tariff headlines may dominate, accumulate the miners on weakness
The positive Supply and Demand drivers for copper are  still intact
Latest tariffs add to the continued inflationary pulse around the world


Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Antofagasta PLC, a predominant copper mining company, presented a noteworthy set of financial and operational results for the year 2024.</li><li>The company experienced revenue and EBITDA growth of 5% and 11%, respectively, with an impressive margin increase by 300 basis points to 52%.</li><li>This reflected a well-managed balance between capital investments in key copper projects and shareholder returns through dividends.</li></ul>

Antofagasta PLC, a predominant copper mining company, presented a noteworthy set of financial and operational results for the year 2024.The company experienced revenue and EBITDA growth of 5% and 11%, respectively, with an impressive margin increase by 300 basis points to 52%.This reflected a well-managed balance between capital investments in key copper projects and shareholder returns through dividends.

Antofagasta PLC: Initiation of Coverage- Cuprochlor-T Leaching Technology Development & 4 Critical Growth Levers!

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>By restricting the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper pipes/wiring and leaving out ores, concentrates, and cathodes, the Trump administration destroyed the COMEX-LME spread in one fell swoop. </li>
<li>COMEX prices have plunged, and the spread now is 150 USD/ton from the highs of almost 3000 USD/ton, with high inventories on the COMEX probably needing to be dumped. </li>
<li>Short term copper prices may face pressure, but we see an excellent outlook for the longer term, given the elevated China copper imports, which rose 18% YoY in July. </li>
</ul>


By restricting the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper pipes/wiring and leaving out ores, concentrates, and cathodes, the Trump administration destroyed the COMEX-LME spread in one fell swoop. 
COMEX prices have plunged, and the spread now is 150 USD/ton from the highs of almost 3000 USD/ton, with high inventories on the COMEX probably needing to be dumped. 
Short term copper prices may face pressure, but we see an excellent outlook for the longer term, given the elevated China copper imports, which rose 18% YoY in July. 


COMEX Spread Destroyed By Trump, Long-Term Copper Still Great

<ul>
<li>COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. </li>
<li>We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.</li>
<li>Follow our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaches-10k-usd-easy-journey-to-11k-usd-ton-on-lower-inventories-in-the-short-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:191702" rel="noopener">Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term</a> </li>
</ul>


COMEX spreads blew out to over 2,500 USD/ton (a ~25% premium) last night as President Trump announced a likelihood of a 50% import tariff on the metal. 
We believe this move will deplete inventories further at the LME (to be shipped to the COMEX) and lead to a rally in copper prices on the LME as well.
Follow our prior insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term 


Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>With China's slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. </li>
<li>The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.</li>
<li>We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


With China's slew of stimulus measures released last month, we are confident that copper prices will break 10,000 USD/ton soon. 
The COMEX spread with LME has now started to build up to over 300 USD/ton, signaling that macro funds are getting bullish on copper.
We continue to like the equity route to play copper with pure plays like Southern Copper (SCCO US) , Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US).


Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc owns and operates copper mines in Chile and conducts exploration activities in Chile and Peru.  The Group also operates a rail network servicing the mining region of northern Chile, as well as operates a concession for the distribution of water in this region.

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Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)

Copper Miners Update Post US Tariff Announcement

$1208 MMG Limited is up 9% today after reporting good earnings and up 36% since we advised re-entering. We would be selling half the position today...

Rikki Malik

Antofagasta PLC: Initiation of Coverage- Cuprochlor-T Leaching Technology Development & 4 Critical Growth Levers!

Antofagasta PLC, a predominant copper mining company, presented a noteworthy set of financial and operational results for the year 2024. The...

Baptista Research

COMEX Spread Destroyed By Trump, Long-Term Copper Still Great

Madness in the markets persist with Trump destroying the COMEX prices by showing leniency on pure copper imports. Despite this, the long-term...

Sameer Taneja

Trump 50% Import Tariff Could Send Copper Into Stratosphere Short-Term: LME Can Breach 11k USD/Ton

With the Trump administration now leaning towards a 50% import tariff in the short term, copper prices on the LME have gained upward momentum. How...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker Oct 7th, 2024: Copper Set to Pass 10,000 USD/Ton

With the slew of Chinese stimulus measures, we discuss how to play the copper price increasing beyond 10,000 USD/ton in the near-term.

Sameer Taneja

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