Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper has now entered the USD 14,000/ton range and consolidated. At these levels, companies are likely to see very positive HoH earnings, as production levels are also more H2-weighted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ero-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38695:1" rel="noopener">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN)</a> are three names with cheap to reasonable valuations to play the copper price inflection</li>
<li>Trading at 8x PE and 5.2x EV-EBITDA, <a target="_blank">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a> is the cheapest, while <a target="_blank">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>, at 14x PE and 6.1x EV-EBITDA, offers massive growth upside from Vicuna. </li>
</ul>


Copper has now entered the USD 14,000/ton range and consolidated. At these levels, companies are likely to see very positive HoH earnings, as production levels are also more H2-weighted.

ERO Copper (ERO US), Lundin Mining (LUN CN), and Antofagasta (ANTO LN) are three names with cheap to reasonable valuations to play the copper price inflection
Trading at 8x PE and 5.2x EV-EBITDA, ERO Copper (ERO US) is the cheapest, while Lundin Mining (LUN CN), at 14x PE and 6.1x EV-EBITDA, offers massive growth upside from Vicuna. 


Copper Price Inflection To 14,000 USD/Ton And Three Stocks To Play It

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

<ul>
<li>Record 2Q26: net sales $4,289mm (+41%), EBITDA $2,856mm (+60%), net income $1,670mm (+72%), on LME copper of $6.04/lb.</li>
<li>Cash cost $0.05/lb net of by-products, net debt down to $665mm, and 2026 copper guidance nudged to 917kt despite weaker Cuajone grades.</li>
<li>2026e EPS $8.33, P/E 22.4x, EV/EBITDA 14.4x at $186.71; sensitivity spans $4.11 to $12.56 EPS on copper of $3.40 to $8.40.</li>
</ul>


Record 2Q26: net sales $4,289mm (+41%), EBITDA $2,856mm (+60%), net income $1,670mm (+72%), on LME copper of $6.04/lb.
Cash cost $0.05/lb net of by-products, net debt down to $665mm, and 2026 copper guidance nudged to 917kt despite weaker Cuajone grades.
2026e EPS $8.33, P/E 22.4x, EV/EBITDA 14.4x at $186.71; sensitivity spans $4.11 to $12.56 EPS on copper of $3.40 to $8.40.


Southern Copper (SCCO US) 2Q FY26 Results/Concall Update: >13,000 USD/Ton Copper Driving Upgrades

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a <em>potential</em> signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, <em>not</em> on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc is a Chilean multinational conglomerate primarily focused on copper mining, with operations concentrated in Chile. The company operates four copper mines, producing copper cathodes and concentrates, along with gold, silver, and molybdenum as by-products. Additionally, it has a transport division providing rail and road cargo services for mining customers in northern Chile. Antofagasta was incorporated in London in 1888 and is headquartered in London, England.

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Antofagasta (ANTO LN)

Copper Price Inflection To 14,000 USD/Ton And Three Stocks To Play It

Copper is consolidating at 14,000 USD/ton. We highlight some updates in the copper market and cheap equities to play the copper story, like Ero...

Sameer Taneja

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Southern Copper (SCCO US) 2Q FY26 Results/Concall Update: >13,000 USD/Ton Copper Driving Upgrades

By-product credits have taken cash cost to $0.05/lb and net debt to $665mm, with 1H26 EBITDA already 65% of the full-year guide, leaving the copper...

Sameer Taneja

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

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