IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aoki-super-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13509:1" rel="noopener">Aoki Super (9977 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weiqiao-textile-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3690:1" rel="noopener">Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Ola Electric (1700674D IN) and Mixue Group (MIX HK) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments - Aoki Super (9977 JP), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), Vinda International (3331 HK).


Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jan) - Ola Electric, Mixue, Aoki Super, Hollysys, Weiqiao Textile, Vinda

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stay long in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hs-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener">HS Holdings (8699 JP)</a>.But beware. It is possible that there is a slightly uncomfortable outcome. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-pharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:992:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS)</a> is up 37% since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a> merger completed; and Inc is up 22%. That's A LOT of expectation baked in. </li>
<li>NEW NISA details are cute, but governance and corporate buybacks matter more. If better education induces a swing from cash/deposits to risky assets, much of that will happen outside NISA.</li>
</ul>


Stay long in HS Holdings (8699 JP).But beware. It is possible that there is a slightly uncomfortable outcome. 

Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) is up 37% since the Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)/Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) merger completed; and Inc is up 22%. That's A LOT of expectation baked in. 
NEW NISA details are cute, but governance and corporate buybacks matter more. If better education induces a swing from cash/deposits to risky assets, much of that will happen outside NISA.


Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aoki-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2993:1" rel="noopener">AOKI Holdings (8214 JP)</a>'s MBO and in-specied-triggered MTO got <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals discussed this week: AOKI Holdings (8214 JP)'s MBO and in-specied-triggered MTO got Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB).
Key updates took place on: JOYY (YY US), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)and Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Aoki, Kerry Express Thailand, JOYY, Tietto Mins, Pact Group

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aoki-super-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13509:1" rel="noopener">Aoki Super (9977 JP)</a> has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY3,800 per share, a 43.9% premium to the undisturbed (5 January). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 13.35% ownership ratio. </li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.6% minority acceptance rate. This acceptance rate is achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. </li>
</ul>



Aoki Super (9977 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer of JPY3,800 per share, a 43.9% premium to the undisturbed (5 January). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 13.35% ownership ratio. 
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.6% minority acceptance rate. This acceptance rate is achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. 


Aoki Super (9977 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY3,800

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The family which owns and controls ubiquitous Nagoya supermarket chain <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aoki-super-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13509:1" rel="noopener">Aoki Super (9977 JP)</a> will acquire the 47% it does not own in an MBO. </li>
<li>This appears to be an estate planning exercise, creating a context to hand off ownership from the 77yr old former CEO to his 44yr old son and current CEO. </li>
<li>This comes in at a 44% premium, an all-time high price, and 15+x forecast FCF (even if the forecast looks a little light). This gets done easily.</li>
</ul>


The family which owns and controls ubiquitous Nagoya supermarket chain Aoki Super (9977 JP) will acquire the 47% it does not own in an MBO. 
This appears to be an estate planning exercise, creating a context to hand off ownership from the 77yr old former CEO to his 44yr old son and current CEO. 
This comes in at a 44% premium, an all-time high price, and 15+x forecast FCF (even if the forecast looks a little light). This gets done easily.


Aoki Super (9977) MBO at ¥3,800/Share (All-Time High, 15x Forecast FCF)

Japan

Aoki Super Co., LTD. operates supermarkets in Aichi Prefecture.  The Company sells fresh food, general foods, pharmaceuticals, and sundry goods.

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Aoki Super (9977 JP)

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Jan) - Ola Electric, Mixue, Aoki Super, Hollysys, Weiqiao Textile, Vinda

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Aoki Super, Hollysys, Weiqiao Textile, Vinda) and ECM (Ola Electric, Mixue).

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Aoki, Kerry Express Thailand, JOYY, Tietto Mins, Pact Group

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett