Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The latest data from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) indicate that, while loan growth remains strong in annual terms, loan outstandings have eased back to where they were in May.  In essence, much of the increase in lending by the major banks seen between March and June was then reversed between July and October.
Peak lending occurred in June, when outstanding loans reached ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion).  Since then, the rate of year-on-year (YoY) growth has remained just above +6%, thanks to exceptionally strong loan demand in the March-June period which pushed overall loan balances by as much as ¥34.4 trillion (US$331.0 billion) YoY.  However, total loan outstandings thereafter fell every month between July and October, bottoming out in November when the major banks finally registered an increase in lending for the first time in five months.  Month-on-month (MoM) growth in regional bank lending has slowed to a comparative trickle, with loan outstandings falling 0.2% MoM in November.  This does not bode well for 2H FY3/2021 banking sector profits generally, especially as credit costs are continuing to ‘normalise’ even as revenues and margins  -  not to mention shareholder returns  -  remain under pressure.
“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

The latest data from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) indicate that, while loan growth remains strong in annual terms, loan outstandings have eased back to where they were in May.  In essence, much of the increase in lending by the major banks seen between March and June was then reversed between July and October.
Peak lending occurred in June, when outstanding loans reached ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion).  Since then, the rate of year-on-year (YoY) growth has remained just above +6%, thanks to exceptionally strong loan demand in the March-June period which pushed overall loan balances by as much as ¥34.4 trillion (US$331.0 billion) YoY.  However, total loan outstandings thereafter fell every month between July and October, bottoming out in November when the major banks finally registered an increase in lending for the first time in five months.  Month-on-month (MoM) growth in regional bank lending has slowed to a comparative trickle, with loan outstandings falling 0.2% MoM in November.  This does not bode well for 2H FY3/2021 banking sector profits generally, especially as credit costs are continuing to ‘normalise’ even as revenues and margins  -  not to mention shareholder returns  -  remain under pressure.
“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

New economic growth data in Japan was a surprise to the government. As a result of stronger household consumption, government consumption and exports, the latest quarter GDP was revised upward slightly. Recovery and better than expectations continues to driver our global bank view. Banks with the highest credit costs or delta in credit costs during the current year, may have the most to gain. And with economic relief packages still firmly in place, the impact can be even more profound on bank profit.

New economic growth data in Japan was a surprise to the government. As a result of stronger household consumption, government consumption and exports, the latest quarter GDP was revised upward slightly. Recovery and better than expectations continues to driver our global bank view. Banks with the highest credit costs or delta in credit costs during the current year, may have the most to gain. And with economic relief packages still firmly in place, the impact can be even more profound on bank profit. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented demand from corporate borrowers for loans, but it is suspected that the vast majority of these emergency loans have been made at virtually no profit margin for the banks.  Moreover, most of this money appears to have been redeposited with the banks for safe-keeping until really needed.  Meanwhile, the rise in workers working from home and restrictions on international travel has resulted in substantially lower discretionary spending (such as on holiday travel) and higher levels of saving.
The cash piles are turning into cash mountains at the banks, prompting some banks to withdraw some deposit products and suspend branch counter operations for cash deposits, cash withdrawals and currency exchange.
It’s a whole new world of pain for Japan’s embattled banks.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented demand from corporate borrowers for loans, but it is suspected that the vast majority of these emergency loans have been made at virtually no profit margin for the banks.  Moreover, most of this money appears to have been redeposited with the banks for safe-keeping until really needed.  Meanwhile, the rise in workers working from home and restrictions on international travel has resulted in substantially lower discretionary spending (such as on holiday travel) and higher levels of saving.
The cash piles are turning into cash mountains at the banks, prompting some banks to withdraw some deposit products and suspend branch counter operations for cash deposits, cash withdrawals and currency exchange.
It’s a whole new world of pain for Japan’s embattled banks.

After hitting a peak of ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion) in June, overall loan outstandings have started to edge down over the last three months to ¥534.206 trillion (US$5.08 trillion) as of the end of September, albeit by a mere 0.1% month-on-month (MoM).  The major banks have registered the biggest declines of around 0.5% MoM, but they still represent 40% of total bank lending in Japan.  By contrast, both the Japanese Bankers Association and the Bank of Japan reported that lending by the regional and secondary regional banks continues to increase, with YoY growth rates of +5.6% and +7.1%, respectively.  Aggregate lending by the 64 regional banks now represents 42% of total bank lending in Japan, while aggregate lending by the 38 secondary regional banks is around 9.6% of total bank lending.

After hitting a peak of ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion) in June, overall loan outstandings have started to edge down over the last three months to ¥534.206 trillion (US$5.08 trillion) as of the end of September, albeit by a mere 0.1% month-on-month (MoM).  The major banks have registered the biggest declines of around 0.5% MoM, but they still represent 40% of total bank lending in Japan.  By contrast, both the Japanese Bankers Association and the Bank of Japan reported that lending by the regional and secondary regional banks continues to increase, with YoY growth rates of +5.6% and +7.1%, respectively.  Aggregate lending by the 64 regional banks now represents 42% of total bank lending in Japan, while aggregate lending by the 38 secondary regional banks is around 9.6% of total bank lending.

After the records set in June when overall lending rose +6.8% YoY  –  at the time, the highest year-on-year increase recorded in the last 20 years, led by the megabanks and other major banks whose loan balances rose by a new all-time record average of +9.4% YoY  –  it was time for a pause for breath.  After hitting a peak of ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion) in June, overall loan outstandings have started to decline very slightly in July and August.  The major banks have registered the biggest declines of around 0.7% month-on-month.  This has been largely offset by continuing increases in lending by both the regional and secondary regional banks, with YoY growth rates of +5.6% and +7.1%, respectively.That said, we remain concerned that much of this lending is being done essentially ‘at cost’ to support local and national government initiatives in stabilising businesses during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. As we have said in previous Insights, ‘profitless prosperity’ remains a clear and present danger for the Japanese banks post-COVID-19.As Japanese banks brace for a potential new wave of corporate failures in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, “Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for FY3/2021 and beyond.

After the records set in June when overall lending rose +6.8% YoY  –  at the time, the highest year-on-year increase recorded in the last 20 years, led by the megabanks and other major banks whose loan balances rose by a new all-time record average of +9.4% YoY  –  it was time for a pause for breath.  After hitting a peak of ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion) in June, overall loan outstandings have started to decline very slightly in July and August.  The major banks have registered the biggest declines of around 0.7% month-on-month.  This has been largely offset by continuing increases in lending by both the regional and secondary regional banks, with YoY growth rates of +5.6% and +7.1%, respectively.That said, we remain concerned that much of this lending is being done essentially ‘at cost’ to support local and national government initiatives in stabilising businesses during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. As we have said in previous Insights, ‘profitless prosperity’ remains a clear and present danger for the Japanese banks post-COVID-19.As Japanese banks brace for a potential new wave of corporate failures in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, “Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for FY3/2021 and beyond.

Japanese Bank Lending: A Pause For Breath

Japan

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

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Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)

Japanese Bank Lending: Losing Momentum

Loan balances have eased back to May levels, with much of the increase in lending by the major banks in March-June reversing between July and...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japan – Economic Strength, Bank Relief

The latest quarter GDP was revised upward slightly. Banks with the highest credit costs or delta in credit costs during the current year, may have...

Daniel Tabbush

Japanese Banks: Mountains of Money

The cash piles at the banks are turning into cash mountains, prompting some to withdraw some deposit products and suspend counter operations for...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Bank Lending: Flatlining

Loan and deposit data for Japanese banks released by both the BoJ and the JBA for September 2020 confirm that the ‘dash for cash’ by major...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Bank Lending: A Pause For Breath

After the records set in June when overall lending rose +6.8% YoY – at the time, the highest year-on-year increase recorded in the last 20 years,...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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