Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>January pricing momentum improved, helped by more operating days &amp; re-routes</li>
<li>Throughput growth remained strong last month, including +18% into WC ports</li>
<li>Near term reality far rosier than downbeat view from industry giant Maersk</li>
</ul>


January pricing momentum improved, helped by more operating days &amp; re-routes
Throughput growth remained strong last month, including +18% into WC ports
Near term reality far rosier than downbeat view from industry giant Maersk


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | LNY Timing, Red Sea Re-Routes Boosted Revenue | (February 2024)

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance</li>
<li>FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes</li>
<li>Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues</li>
</ul>


Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance
FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes
Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues


Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful 'Glass Half-Full' Investors

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strong</li><li>The freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation than EUR-flation</li><li>Expect another spike in freight rates when spring volumes arrive</li></ul>

Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strongThe freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation than EUR-flationExpect another spike in freight rates when spring volumes arrive

Suez Watch: Euro demand cannot cope with these prices!

<ul>
<li>December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022</li>
<li>Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth</li>
<li>Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming</li>
</ul>


December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022
Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth
Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.</li>
<li>Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.</li>
<li>Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.</li>
</ul>


Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.
Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.
Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.


War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | LNY Timing, Red Sea Re-Routes Boosted Revenue | (February 2024)

Container shipping price momentum in January jumped on Red Sea re-routes and a Y/Y increase in operating days. We highlight a growing gap between...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful 'Glass Half-Full' Investors

Maersk's downbeat commentary appeared to surprise investors last week. It also revealed a mismatch between management's long-term views and...

Tracking Traffic

Suez Watch: Euro demand cannot cope with these prices!

Takeaways: Early weakness in European shipping demand, while US demand remains strong The freight rate story is more likely to impact USD-flation...

Steno Research

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

Price momentum for deep-sea container rates is improving, and container volumes are also firming. Meanwhile, cheap fuel remains a slightly helpful...

Tracking Traffic

War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

Conflicts are intensifying in the Red Sea. US and UK launched about 70 airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Houthis vows to respond and asserts...

Mint Finance

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