Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/836/original/BANNER-CARGO.png?1608075975" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178836"></figure></section>Strong North American imports continued in November, and it appears the usual peak season may be stretching into mid-December and even January. Average freight rates in November -- spot and contract combined --  rose by about 13% YoY for a second consecutive month. But bunker (fuel) prices are also up compared to earlier in 2020. A spike in fuel prices in Q420 will likely eat into the nice gains in profitability shown by many carriers in Q220 and Q320. Shares of carriers have performed very well after bottoming in the first half of the year, but in our view valuations now look stretched. Betting on further gains after these stocks have doubled and tripled over the course of a few months is very risky, in our view.

Strong North American imports continued in November, and it appears the usual peak season may be stretching into mid-December and even January. Average freight rates in November -- spot and contract combined --  rose by about 13% YoY for a second consecutive month. But bunker (fuel) prices are also up compared to earlier in 2020. A spike in fuel prices in Q420 will likely eat into the nice gains in profitability shown by many carriers in Q220 and Q320. Shares of carriers have performed very well after bottoming in the first half of the year, but in our view valuations now look stretched. Betting on further gains after these stocks have doubled and tripled over the course of a few months is very risky, in our view. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Volumes, Rates & Bunker All Firmer | Valuations Get Weird

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/990/original/BANNER-CARGO.png?1605979844" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172990"></figure></section>Average container rates popped in October, up almost 14% YoY according to our proprietary model. Container volumes out of Asia and into the North American West coast remained firm, too.Carriers (and their customers) have once again begun complaining about a shortage of containers at key origins in Asia. We believe this equipment shortage also supports firmer container rates.Firming rates and volumes, combined with relatively low fuel prices, are delivering a surprisingly good year to container carriers, Covid19 be damned. But we feel most of the good news has been reflected in share prices, many of which have more than doubled from lows in H1 2020.

Average container rates popped in October, up almost 14% YoY according to our proprietary model. Container volumes out of Asia and into the North American West coast remained firm, too.Carriers (and their customers) have once again begun complaining about a shortage of containers at key origins in Asia. We believe this equipment shortage also supports firmer container rates.Firming rates and volumes, combined with relatively low fuel prices, are delivering a surprisingly good year to container carriers, Covid19 be damned. But we feel most of the good news has been reflected in share prices, many of which have more than doubled from lows in H1 2020. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: October Rates Pop | LA Volumes Strong | Box Shortage?

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on PORT with a Buy call and a 2021E target price of Bt3.00 (20x PER).</li><li>Our call is underpinned by projected 2021-22E earnings growth at a 39% CAGR, driven by the potential recovery of containers serviced volume.</li><li>Meanwhile, at the current share price, PORT is expected to offer a dividend yield of 4% in 2021-22E.</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on PORT with a Buy call and a 2021E target price of Bt3.00 (20x PER).Our call is underpinned by projected 2021-22E earnings growth at a 39% CAGR, driven by the potential recovery of containers serviced volume.Meanwhile, at the current share price, PORT is expected to offer a dividend yield of 4% in 2021-22E.

Strategic Location & One-Stop Service the Key Attractions

Our research suggests average container rates rose by 6% in September, boosted by improved Transpacific volumes. While inbound to US demand appears strong through October, estimates from the Port of LA suggest early November will see a modest YoY decline in throughput. 
Bunker (ship fuel) prices remain below year-ago levels and carrier profitability in Q3 (and early Q4) likely remains high compared to 2019. Germany's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hapag-lloyd-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21649:1" rel="noopener">Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG GR)</a> lifted full-year guidance this week, reflecting confidence in near-term market conditions. 
After almost tripling earlier in 2020 on a combination of strong demand and limited capacity, it appears air cargo pricing for key Asian carriers has moderated compared versus peak levels in Q2. 
While current conditions appear buoyant, we believe the sharpest YoY improvements in profitability for container carriers (and air cargo) are probably already behind us.

Our research suggests average container rates rose by 6% in September, boosted by improved Transpacific volumes. While inbound to US demand appears strong through October, estimates from the Port of LA suggest early November will see a modest YoY decline in throughput. 
Bunker (ship fuel) prices remain below year-ago levels and carrier profitability in Q3 (and early Q4) likely remains high compared to 2019. Germany's Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG GR) lifted full-year guidance this week, reflecting confidence in near-term market conditions. 
After almost tripling earlier in 2020 on a combination of strong demand and limited capacity, it appears air cargo pricing for key Asian carriers has moderated compared versus peak levels in Q2. 
While current conditions appear buoyant, we believe the sharpest YoY improvements in profitability for container carriers (and air cargo) are probably already behind us. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Box Rates Firm | LA Down in Nov? | Air Cargo Pricing Eases

August numbers show a spike in container volumes on key routes, but average achieved freight rates were still just so-so (but improving compared to Q2 2020).
Forward data from the Port of Los Angeles (PoLA) shows strength in rest of September and into the October peak season. Carriers are also benefitting from relatively low fuel prices. 
Conclusions: We still have not seen the strong bump in rates reported by the mainstream financial media, but container pricing is better than in Q2 and volumes have clearly firmed and fuel prices are reasonable -- all positives for the carriers. But the biggest gains -- in both carrier profitability and share prices -- are likely already behind us.

August numbers show a spike in container volumes on key routes, but average achieved freight rates were still just so-so (but improving compared to Q2 2020).
Forward data from the Port of Los Angeles (PoLA) shows strength in rest of September and into the October peak season. Carriers are also benefitting from relatively low fuel prices. 
Conclusions: We still have not seen the strong bump in rates reported by the mainstream financial media, but container pricing is better than in Q2 and volumes have clearly firmed and fuel prices are reasonable -- all positives for the carriers. But the biggest gains -- in both carrier profitability and share prices -- are likely already behind us. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Containers & Air Cargo: August Volumes Jump | New PoLA Data Firm Through October

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Volumes, Rates & Bunker All Firmer | Valuations Get Weird

Volumes and average freight rates firmed again in November, but so did fuel prices. Many shares of container carriers also jumped (again) this...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: October Rates Pop | LA Volumes Strong | Box Shortage?

Container rates rose again in October, and fuel costs remain low. Although carriers likely continue to enjoy solid profitability, we believe shares...

Tracking Traffic

Strategic Location & One-Stop Service the Key Attractions

We initiate our coverage on PORT with a Buy call and a 2021E target price of Bt3.00 (20x PER). Our call is underpinned by projected 2021-22E...

Krungthai XSpring

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: Box Rates Firm | LA Down in Nov? | Air Cargo Pricing Eases

Container volumes and pricing firmed in September, and fuel prices remain relatively low, but trading conditions are unlikely to improve much from...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Containers & Air Cargo: August Volumes Jump | New PoLA Data Firm Through October

August numbers show better volumes, rates just so-so (but improving) Forward data from P

Tracking Traffic

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