Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be two deletes for the index in September. There are two other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of around 2.7% and a one-way trade of A$51m.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jb-hi-fi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:555:1" rel="noopener">JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU)</a> and could be partially driven by potential index deletions.</li>
</ul>


There could be two deletes for the index in September. There are two other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold.
Even if there are no constituent changes, there will be capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of around 2.7% and a one-way trade of A$51m.
Short interest has been increasing on Charter Hall (CHC AU) and JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH AU) and could be partially driven by potential index deletions.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Deletes, Close Deletes, Capping Changes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield and EIG at A$9.00 per share, a 54.9%  premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).</li>
<li>The Board will grant eight weeks of due diligence access and intends to unanimously recommend a binding offer at A$9.00 per share. The offer is attractive.</li>
<li>Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 14.9%.</li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU) received a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Brookfield and EIG at A$9.00 per share, a 54.9%  premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).
The Board will grant eight weeks of due diligence access and intends to unanimously recommend a binding offer at A$9.00 per share. The offer is attractive.
Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 14.9%.


Origin Energy's (ORG AU) Indicative Offer of A$9.00 from Brookfield/EIG

<ul>
<li>Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the consortium's offer of A$5.00 per share to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.  </li>
<li>The key condition is approval from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> shareholders and regulatory authorities (FIRB). The scheme meeting is scheduled for 9:30 am on 15 July. </li>
<li>We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 4 August implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 0.8% and 5.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the consortium's offer of A$5.00 per share to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.  
The key condition is approval from Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) shareholders and regulatory authorities (FIRB). The scheme meeting is scheduled for 9:30 am on 15 July. 
We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 4 August implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 0.8% and 5.1%, respectively.


Uniti’s Scheme Meeting on 15 July, IE’s Opinion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>After 14 months of Strategic Review and preparation for a Demerger of its generation and distribution businesses, the Board has <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220530/pdf/459fg181kqf4tl.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dropped the Demerger Proposal</a> in face of shareholder opposition.</li>
<li>While it isn't clear exactly how much opposition there was, Michael Cannon-Brookes held 11+% and General Meetings have garnered 50-75% of investors for a vote which needed 75% approval.</li>
<li>CEO and Chair have announced their resignations, two other board members will leave, and now the Board will start another strategic review using preparation at hand.</li>
</ul>


After 14 months of Strategic Review and preparation for a Demerger of its generation and distribution businesses, the Board has dropped the Demerger Proposal in face of shareholder opposition.
While it isn't clear exactly how much opposition there was, Michael Cannon-Brookes held 11+% and General Meetings have garnered 50-75% of investors for a vote which needed 75% approval.
CEO and Chair have announced their resignations, two other board members will leave, and now the Board will start another strategic review using preparation at hand.


AGL Drops Demerger Proposal - Back To Square Two

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends declared or paid after today. </li>
<li>The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval and Court approval. The scheme meeting will be held in July.</li>
<li>We think that the offer is attractive. At the last close price of A$4.96, the gross and annualised spread to a July-end effective date is 0.8% and 2.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends declared or paid after today. 
The key scheme conditions are shareholder approval, FIRB approval and Court approval. The scheme meeting will be held in July.
We think that the offer is attractive. At the last close price of A$4.96, the gross and annualised spread to a July-end effective date is 0.8% and 2.8%, respectively.


Uniti Enters a SID with Morrison/Brookfield Consortium at A$5.00 Per Share

Australia

APA Group is a natural gas infrastructure company. The Company owns and or operates gas transmission and distribution assets whose pipelines span every state and territory in mainland Australia. APA Group also holds minority interests in energy infrastructure enterprises.

Price Gauge
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APA Group (APA AU)

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Deletes, Close Deletes, Capping Changes

With a couple of weeks to review cutoff, there are two stocks in deletion zone and another two that are close to the deletion zone. Most likely, no...

Brian Freitas

Origin Energy's (ORG AU) Indicative Offer of A$9.00 from Brookfield/EIG

The offer is attractive. Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to...

Arun George

Uniti’s Scheme Meeting on 15 July, IE’s Opinion

We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 4 August implementation date, the annualised spread is 5.1%.

Arun George

AGL Drops Demerger Proposal - Back To Square Two

AGL has dropped its Demerger proposal in the face of fears it wouldn't get 75% of a low-turnout vote. Chair + CEO have resigned on a forward basis....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Deletes, Close Deletes, Capping Changes

With a couple of weeks to review cutoff, there are two stocks in deletion zone and another two that are close to the deletion zone. Most likely, no...

Brian Freitas

Origin Energy's (ORG AU) Indicative Offer of A$9.00 from Brookfield/EIG

The offer is attractive. Regulatory approvals are an overhang and would likely require price concessions. At the last close, the gross spread to...

Arun George

Uniti’s Scheme Meeting on 15 July, IE’s Opinion

We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 4 August implementation date, the annualised spread is 5.1%.

Arun George

AGL Drops Demerger Proposal - Back To Square Two

AGL has dropped its Demerger proposal in the face of fears it wouldn't get 75% of a low-turnout vote. Chair + CEO have resigned on a forward basis....

Travis Lundy

Uniti Enters a SID with Morrison/Brookfield Consortium at A$5.00 Per Share

Uniti has entered a SID with the Morrison/Brookfield consortium at A$5.00 cash per share less dividends. A done deal with annualised spread to a...

Arun George