Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Mine supply is stuck near 3,600 tonnes a year. Central bank buying doubled after the Russia-Ukraine war, from 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes, squeezing everyone else.</li>
<li>
Debasement, not real rates, drives gold now. Yields that signal fiscal stress pull money in, not out. August proved it: rates stayed high, gold rallied anyway. Intervention does the same.</li>
<li>
Three small- to mid-cap stocks we like to play the gold theme are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apex-mining-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22952:1" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesdome-gold-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:53204:1" rel="noopener">Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN)</a>
</li>
</ul>



Mine supply is stuck near 3,600 tonnes a year. Central bank buying doubled after the Russia-Ukraine war, from 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes, squeezing everyone else.

Debasement, not real rates, drives gold now. Yields that signal fiscal stress pull money in, not out. August proved it: rates stayed high, gold rallied anyway. Intervention does the same.

Three small- to mid-cap stocks we like to play the gold theme are OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) / Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN)



$4,500 Gold: Three Small-Mid Caps The Market Has Not Repriced

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

<ul>
<li>
 Earnings momentum intact: Consolidated net income rose 50% YoY to PHP2.57bn in 2Q26 on revenue of PHP6.52bn, up 30%, as realized gold at USD4,424/oz offset a 12% volume decline.</li>
<li>
Grade headwind, throughput offset: Maco gold grade fell 26% YoY to 2.49 gpt in lean zones, while tonnes milled rose 20% to 277,284t; Tagbaros drain tunnel targets flooded higher-grade blocks.</li>
<li>
Valuation at PHP14.96; FY26e P/E of 7.8x and EV/EBITDA of 5.5x on estimated EPS of PHP1.85; 1H26 net income of PHP5.39bn is 51% of the full-year estimate.</li>
</ul>



 Earnings momentum intact: Consolidated net income rose 50% YoY to PHP2.57bn in 2Q26 on revenue of PHP6.52bn, up 30%, as realized gold at USD4,424/oz offset a 12% volume decline.

Grade headwind, throughput offset: Maco gold grade fell 26% YoY to 2.49 gpt in lean zones, while tonnes milled rose 20% to 277,284t; Tagbaros drain tunnel targets flooded higher-grade blocks.

Valuation at PHP14.96; FY26e P/E of 7.8x and EV/EBITDA of 5.5x on estimated EPS of PHP1.85; 1H26 net income of PHP5.39bn is 51% of the full-year estimate.


APEX MINING CO., INC. (APX PM) Q2FY26: 50% Earnings Growth 7.8x PE With A 6.4% Yield

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The PSEi is the main benchmark of the Philippine Stock Exchange comprising a fixed basket of 30 companies selected on the basis of market capitalization and liquidity thresholds.</li>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the PSEi index for the February 2027 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect 3 changes based on latest data. However, the reference period is not complete yet and our expectations can change.</li>
</ul>


The PSEi is the main benchmark of the Philippine Stock Exchange comprising a fixed basket of 30 companies selected on the basis of market capitalization and liquidity thresholds.
In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the PSEi index for the February 2027 index rebal event.
We expect 3 changes based on latest data. However, the reference period is not complete yet and our expectations can change.


Quiddity Leaderboard PSEi Feb27 Rebal: First Review Under New Methodology; 3 ADDs/DELs Likely

<ul>
<li>At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.</li>
<li>We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> have impressive capital return programs.</li>
</ul>


At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.
We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. 
We like OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, Newmont (NEM AU) and Barrick Mining (B US) have impressive capital return programs.


Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Philippines

Apex Mining Co. Inc. is a Philippine-owned mining company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of gold, silver, and other metals. The company operates the Maco Gold Mine in Davao de Oro and holds interests in other mineral properties. Apex Mining was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Pasig City, Philippines.

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Apex Mining (APX PM)

$4,500 Gold: Three Small-Mid Caps The Market Has Not Repriced

We highlight three undervalued small- to mid-cap gold miners. Oceanagold (OGP PM), Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome (WDO CN) are strong value...

Sameer Taneja

APEX MINING CO., INC. (APX PM) Q2FY26: 50% Earnings Growth 7.8x PE With A 6.4% Yield

PITCH APX: 2Q26 net income up 50% YoY to PHP2.57bn as record silver prices offset grade decline; Tagbaros tunnel and Amacan copper are the re...

Sameer Taneja

Quiddity Leaderboard PSEi Feb27 Rebal: First Review Under New Methodology; 3 ADDs/DELs Likely

The introduction of the new methodology is likely to result in the addition of a previously-ineligible large name and a couple of high-impact...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

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52-week Range

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$4,500 Gold: Three Small-Mid Caps The Market Has Not Repriced

We highlight three undervalued small- to mid-cap gold miners. Oceanagold (OGP PM), Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome (WDO CN) are strong value...

Sameer Taneja

GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Gold miners trade at 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA at $4,500/oz; YTD laggard Barrick is the cheapest on EV/EBITDA, and Oceanagold Gold offers a 12%...

Sameer Taneja

APEX MINING CO., INC. (APX PM) Q2FY26: 50% Earnings Growth 7.8x PE With A 6.4% Yield

PITCH APX: 2Q26 net income up 50% YoY to PHP2.57bn as record silver prices offset grade decline; Tagbaros tunnel and Amacan copper are the re...

Sameer Taneja

Quiddity Leaderboard PSEi Feb27 Rebal: First Review Under New Methodology; 3 ADDs/DELs Likely

The introduction of the new methodology is likely to result in the addition of a previously-ineligible large name and a couple of high-impact...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja