External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our POW calls delivered an excellent Monthly strike rate of 84% in Oct’23.</li><li>Calls that successfully achieved their target were Nestle India (~10%), Aptus Value Housing Finance (10%), and Equitas Small Finance Bank (10%).</li><li>ICICI Bank LtdAxis Alpha reported an astounding monthly strike rate of 80% in Oct’23.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our POW calls delivered an excellent Monthly strike rate of 84% in Oct’23.Calls that successfully achieved their target were Nestle India (~10%), Aptus Value Housing Finance (10%), and Equitas Small Finance Bank (10%).ICICI Bank LtdAxis Alpha reported an astounding monthly strike rate of 80% in Oct’23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Oct 2023

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>APL Apollo Tubes’ Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line with our estimates. On a consensus basis, it was a slight miss of 4%/3%/5% respectively.</li><li>Revenue grew by 17%/2% YoY/QoQ, led by higher sales volumes, partially offset by a drop in HRC steel prices (down 1.5%/4% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>VAP sales stood largely flat at 55% vs. 54% in Q2FY23. EBITDA grew by 40%/6% YoY/QoQ to Rs 325 Cr, a 3% beat vs. our estimates, which was on account of topline growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes’ Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line with our estimates. On a consensus basis, it was a slight miss of 4%/3%/5% respectively.Revenue grew by 17%/2% YoY/QoQ, led by higher sales volumes, partially offset by a drop in HRC steel prices (down 1.5%/4% YoY/QoQ).VAP sales stood largely flat at 55% vs. 54% in Q2FY23. EBITDA grew by 40%/6% YoY/QoQ to Rs 325 Cr, a 3% beat vs. our estimates, which was on account of topline growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes  - Largely Inline Results; Growth Drivers Remain Intact

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Kurita Water Industries / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macrotech-developers-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27315:1" rel="noopener">Macrotech Developers</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-97-communications-limited-paytm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-communications-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20892:1" rel="noopener">Tata Communications</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apl-apollo-tubes-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16132:1" rel="noopener">Apl Apollo Tubes</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/persistent-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9468:1" rel="noopener">Persistent Systems</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzlon-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1073:1" rel="noopener">Suzlon Energy</a> have run up over the recent past and have heightened investor attention.</li>
<li>The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.</li>
<li>We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.</li>
</ul>



Polycab India, Macrotech Developers, Paytm, Tata Communications, Tata Motors DVR, Apl Apollo Tubes, Persistent Systems and Suzlon Energy have run up over the recent past and have heightened investor attention.
The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.
We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.


India - Positioning on Some Interesting* Names

<ul><li>Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24 and lower-than-expected Alumina sales.</li><li>Hindalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT dropped by -9%/-27%/-40% YoY and de-grew/grew by -5%/-2%/+2% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.</li><li>LME Aluminium prices declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24, which were partially offset by higher-than-expected metal shipments (Copper and Aluminium shipments beat our estimates) which led to beat on our estimates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24 and lower-than-expected Alumina sales.Hindalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT dropped by -9%/-27%/-40% YoY and de-grew/grew by -5%/-2%/+2% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.LME Aluminium prices declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24, which were partially offset by higher-than-expected metal shipments (Copper and Aluminium shipments beat our estimates) which led to beat on our estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. manufactures and exports galvanized steel tubes, galvanized steel pipes, and welded black pipes and tubes.

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Apl Apollo Tubes (APAT IN)

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Oct 2023

Our POW calls delivered an excellent Monthly strike rate of 84% in Oct’23. Calls that successfully achieved their target were Nestle India (~10%),...

Axis Direct

APL Apollo Tubes - Largely Inline Results; Growth Drivers Remain Intact

APL Apollo Tubes’ Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line with our estimates. On a consensus basis, it was a slight miss of 4%/3%/5% respectively.

Axis Direct

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

India - Positioning on Some Interesting* Names

There are 8 Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and where the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get...

Brian Freitas

Metals & Mining: Q1FY24 Review

Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium...

Axis Direct

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