Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see four expected ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six expected ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.</li>
<li>The BSE 100 handling rules for names without futures and options (F&amp;O) sometimes punish companies that have enjoyed good share price rallies and Zomato could fall into such a trap.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.
We see four expected ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six expected ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.
The BSE 100 handling rules for names without futures and options (F&amp;O) sometimes punish companies that have enjoyed good share price rallies and Zomato could fall into such a trap.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Zomato Needs F&O Membership to Avoid BSE 100 Deletion

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Near-term pressure on EBITDA/t to ease gradually as steel prices stabilise: The company’s EBITDA/t stood at Rs 4,183/t, down 10% YoY due to certain one-off expenses in employee and other expenses.</li><li>Excluding these expenses, EBITDA/t would have been higher by Rs 150/t. In Q2FY25, EBITDA/t could remain under pressure as dealers are not in the restocking mode as steel prices continue to correct.</li><li>In FY25, the company targets to achieve flat EBITDA/t YoY. However, going ahead from FY26 onwards, multiple levers are present to increase EBITDA/t towards Rs 5,000/t.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Near-term pressure on EBITDA/t to ease gradually as steel prices stabilise: The company’s EBITDA/t stood at Rs 4,183/t, down 10% YoY due to certain one-off expenses in employee and other expenses.Excluding these expenses, EBITDA/t would have been higher by Rs 150/t. In Q2FY25, EBITDA/t could remain under pressure as dealers are not in the restocking mode as steel prices continue to correct.In FY25, the company targets to achieve flat EBITDA/t YoY. However, going ahead from FY26 onwards, multiple levers are present to increase EBITDA/t towards Rs 5,000/t.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apl Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss; Multiple Levers for Improvement Ahead

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-March.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 12 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could see passive outflows in August.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-March.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 12 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could see passive outflows in August.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>At present, 3 changes for the BSE 100 index and 7 changes for the BSE 200 index.</li>
<li>The BSE 100 handling rules for names without futures and options (F&amp;O) sometimes punish companies that have enjoyed good share price rallies and Zomato could get into such a trap.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.
At present, 3 changes for the BSE 100 index and 7 changes for the BSE 200 index.
The BSE 100 handling rules for names without futures and options (F&amp;O) sometimes punish companies that have enjoyed good share price rallies and Zomato could get into such a trap.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Could Zomato's Share Price Rally Become a Problem?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking coal consumption costs, partially offset by lower NSRs (Benchmark Steel HRC prices in the traders market exMumbai have declined by 6% YoY and flat QoQ).</li><li>On a QoQ basis, we expect EBITDA/t growth to moderate or even decline as a decline in coking coal consumption cost is offset by lower NSRs and lower sales volumes over the seasonally strong Q4FY24.</li><li>For Aluminium companies, we expect growth in EBITDA margin to moderate on a QoQ basis.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking coal consumption costs, partially offset by lower NSRs (Benchmark Steel HRC prices in the traders market exMumbai have declined by 6% YoY and flat QoQ).On a QoQ basis, we expect EBITDA/t growth to moderate or even decline as a decline in coking coal consumption cost is offset by lower NSRs and lower sales volumes over the seasonally strong Q4FY24.For Aluminium companies, we expect growth in EBITDA margin to moderate on a QoQ basis.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. manufactures and exports galvanized steel tubes, galvanized steel pipes, and welded black pipes and tubes.

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Apl Apollo Tubes (APAT IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Zomato Needs F&O Membership to Avoid BSE 100 Deletion

Zomato does not have F&O membership and it could violate a BSE Sensex Next 50 selection rule which would trigger a BSE 100 deletion. To escape...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Apl Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss; Multiple Levers for Improvement Ahead

The company’s EBITDA/t stood at Rs 4,183/t, down 10% YoY due to certain one-off expenses in employee and other expenses.

Axis Direct

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

Metals - Q1FY25 Earnings Preview

For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking...

Axis Direct

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Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Zomato Needs F&O Membership to Avoid BSE 100 Deletion

Zomato does not have F&O membership and it could violate a BSE Sensex Next 50 selection rule which would trigger a BSE 100 deletion. To escape...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Apl Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss; Multiple Levers for Improvement Ahead

The company’s EBITDA/t stood at Rs 4,183/t, down 10% YoY due to certain one-off expenses in employee and other expenses.

Axis Direct

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Could Zomato's Share Price Rally Become a Problem?

We see Zomato as a BSE 100 DEL for December 2024 as it currently violates one of the derivative linkage requirements. Zomato's fate will depend on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Metals - Q1FY25 Earnings Preview

For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking...

Axis Direct

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Zomato Needs F&O Membership to Avoid BSE 100 Deletion

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 24: Could Zomato's Share Price Rally Become a Problem?