European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applus-services-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21249:1" rel="noopener">Applus Services SA (APPS SM),</a> whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter offer.</li>
<li>The market is capable of forcing Apollo to sweeten its proposal to reach 75% acceptances. Many risk arbitrageurs have positions in Applus and may not settle for the current premium.</li>
<li>This situation has been flagged for a while. If already long, it is worth holding for a possible better offer, which could come around €10/share, a 5.2% increase.</li>
</ul>


On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for Applus Services SA (APPS SM), whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter offer.
The market is capable of forcing Apollo to sweeten its proposal to reach 75% acceptances. Many risk arbitrageurs have positions in Applus and may not settle for the current premium.
This situation has been flagged for a while. If already long, it is worth holding for a possible better offer, which could come around €10/share, a 5.2% increase.


Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage

<ul>
<li>"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to Apollo. New PUSU deadline is 17 May.</li>
<li>As top shareholder of Vallourec, Apollo knows the sector. At the 240p offer proposal, Wood would be valued at an undemanding 5.7x EV/Fwd EBITDA on consensus numbers. </li>
<li>My fair value estimate is 261.7p (average of SOTP-multiples and DCF). There is value in the sector and Apollo may have turned a corner. Long.</li>
</ul>


"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to Apollo. New PUSU deadline is 17 May.
As top shareholder of Vallourec, Apollo knows the sector. At the 240p offer proposal, Wood would be valued at an undemanding 5.7x EV/Fwd EBITDA on consensus numbers. 
My fair value estimate is 261.7p (average of SOTP-multiples and DCF). There is value in the sector and Apollo may have turned a corner. Long.


Apollo/John Wood Group: Due Diligence Access

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The 18% spread suggests there the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management Inc (APO US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tenneco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6260:1" rel="noopener">Tenneco Inc (TEN US)</a> transaction is fraught with risks which, we believe, are more imaginary than real</li>
<li>With TEN shareholders expected to approve the merger next week, we assess regulatory obstacles low and the risk of APO reconsidering the transaction unlikely except in the most unexpected circumstances   </li>
<li>Overall we believe the risk-reward for arbs skews to the attractive with the opportunity to game IRRs in excess of 30%</li>
</ul>


The 18% spread suggests there the Apollo Global Management Inc (APO US) / Tenneco Inc (TEN US) transaction is fraught with risks which, we believe, are more imaginary than real
With TEN shareholders expected to approve the merger next week, we assess regulatory obstacles low and the risk of APO reconsidering the transaction unlikely except in the most unexpected circumstances   
Overall we believe the risk-reward for arbs skews to the attractive with the opportunity to game IRRs in excess of 30%


MergerTalk: Why We Think The Risk In Apollo's Tenneco Buy Out Is Overpriced

Writing about High Quality Companies, Enlightened Capital

Enlightened Capital

Writing about High Quality Companies

I have more than 8 years of investing experience across Equities and Fixed Income (Investment Grade/High Yield). I have largely focused on Financials, Energy, and Utilities professionally, but I am interested in exploring new sectors to find attractive opportunities. Right now, the Payments sector is occupying much of my time.

Equity Bottom-Up

Apollo Global Management  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>APO is a top 5 alternative asset manager globally with $513bn of AUM as of 1Q22.</li><li>APO’s AUM is diversified across 73% of AUM in Yield strategies, 17% in Equity strategies, and 10% in Hybrid strategies.</li><li>APO recently acquired the remaining 65% of Athene (ATH), for $10.4bn (6x ’22 EPS), adding ~$200bn of insurance liabilities to APO’s balance sheet including fixed indexed annuities, fixed annuities, group annuities, and funding agreements.</li></ul>

APO is a top 5 alternative asset manager globally with $513bn of AUM as of 1Q22.APO’s AUM is diversified across 73% of AUM in Yield strategies, 17% in Equity strategies, and 10% in Hybrid strategies.APO recently acquired the remaining 65% of Athene (ATH), for $10.4bn (6x ’22 EPS), adding ~$200bn of insurance liabilities to APO’s balance sheet including fixed indexed annuities, fixed annuities, group annuities, and funding agreements.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>PAG aims to raise around US$2bn via its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>PAG is an alternative investment firm focused on Asia-Pacific (APAC), it had approximately US$50bn in assets under management (AUM), as of Dec 21.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


PAG aims to raise around US$2bn via its Hong Kong IPO.
PAG is an alternative investment firm focused on Asia-Pacific (APAC), it had approximately US$50bn in assets under management (AUM), as of Dec 21.
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


PAG Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Planned Reorg Doesn't Sound Great

United States

Apollo Global Management, Inc. operates as an alternative investment management company. The Company focuses on investing in yield, hybrid, and equity markets to generate retirement and investment income for clients. Apollo Global Management serves businesses and individuals worldwide.

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Apollo Global Management (APO US)

Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage

On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for Applus, whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Apollo/John Wood Group: Due Diligence Access

"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MergerTalk: Why We Think The Risk In Apollo's Tenneco Buy Out Is Overpriced

Whether the oversized spread underestimates Apollo's commitment to the transaction terms or overestimates the deal's regulatory obstacles, either...

Robert Sassoon

Apollo Global (APO)

APO is a top 5 alternative asset manager globally with $513bn of AUM as of 1Q22. APO’s AUM is diversified across 73% of AUM in Yield strategies,...

Enlightened Capital

PAG Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Planned Reorg Doesn't Sound Great

PAG aims to raise around US$2bn via its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

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