Managing Director, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Evan Campbell, CFA

Managing Director

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
 High-probability KPI miss: RDM needs a further 6.2% cut from 2024’s 0.449 tCO₂e/t to reach the 2025 SPT of 0.421 tCO₂e/t by Dec 31st, 2025.</li>
<li>
 Largest debt: The €600MM 2029 senior secured notes dominate the debt stack, alongside a €146MM revolver. Terms are private, for illustration we use a market 25bps proxy.</li>
<li>
 Value set-up in stress: Bonds around 79 cents on Sep 29th, 2025, then down 18 cents after Oct 8th, 2025, headlines. KPI miss likely; outlook pressured.</li>
</ul>



 High-probability KPI miss: RDM needs a further 6.2% cut from 2024’s 0.449 tCO₂e/t to reach the 2025 SPT of 0.421 tCO₂e/t by Dec 31st, 2025.

 Largest debt: The €600MM 2029 senior secured notes dominate the debt stack, alongside a €146MM revolver. Terms are private, for illustration we use a market 25bps proxy.

 Value set-up in stress: Bonds around 79 cents on Sep 29th, 2025, then down 18 cents after Oct 8th, 2025, headlines. KPI miss likely; outlook pressured.


Reno De Medici (RM IM) SLB, Trade the High Risk YE2025 SPT Window

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Tega Industries has announced its intent to acquire a controlling stake in Molycop at a USD 1.48 billion enterprise value, in consortium with Apollo Funds.</li>
<li>The deal is nearly 10x Tega’s size, and will redefine its global positioning across the mining consumables and equipment value chain.</li>
<li>Integration risks loom large, but if executed well, this move transforms Tega from a niche Indian export champion into a global leader in mineral processing solutions.</li>
</ul>


Tega Industries has announced its intent to acquire a controlling stake in Molycop at a USD 1.48 billion enterprise value, in consortium with Apollo Funds.
The deal is nearly 10x Tega’s size, and will redefine its global positioning across the mining consumables and equipment value chain.
Integration risks loom large, but if executed well, this move transforms Tega from a niche Indian export champion into a global leader in mineral processing solutions.


Tega Industries Ltd: Leap into the Global Big League with Molycop Acquisition

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> MBO. </li>
<li>Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. </li>
<li>The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&amp;i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). </li>
</ul>


On 10 January, Bloomberg reported that Apollo is considering an equity commitment of JPY1.5 trillion in the Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) MBO. 
Securing financing is a key challenge for the MBO. Apollo’s involvement suggests a shift to a higher mix of equity vs debt, which should ease concerns about securing debt financing. 
The article suggests that the MBO valuation could be lower than previously reported. However, 7&amp;i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation (market cap). 


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> can be the unexpected addition by transition because of a high liquidity score and a close distance below the estimated transition threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> is the main candidate for addition by migration due to having the highest average mcap score and passing eligibility metrics.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/illumina-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8015:1" rel="noopener">Illumina Inc (ILMN US)</a> has a muted conviction for addition because of ineligible earnings and a recent deletion from the index.</li>
</ul>



Coinbase Global (COIN US) can be the unexpected addition by transition because of a high liquidity score and a close distance below the estimated transition threshold.

Lennox International (LII US) is the main candidate for addition by migration due to having the highest average mcap score and passing eligibility metrics.

Illumina Inc (ILMN US) has a muted conviction for addition because of ineligible earnings and a recent deletion from the index.


S&P500 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Flipping the COIN

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>There is over US$500m to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management (APO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workday-inc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5660:1" rel="noopener">Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&amp;P500 Equal Weight Index.
There is over US$500m to trade in Broadcom (AVGO US), Tesla (TSLA US), Apollo Global Management (APO US), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US). 

Broadcom (AVGO US) swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

United States

Apollo Global Management, Inc. operates as an alternative investment management company. The Company focuses on investing in yield, hybrid, and equity markets to generate retirement and investment income for clients. Apollo Global Management serves businesses and individuals worldwide.

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Apollo Global Management (APO US)

Reno De Medici (RM IM) SLB, Trade the High Risk YE2025 SPT Window

High probability of KPI miss for RDM, needing 6.2% cut to reach 2025 target by Dec 31st. Largest debt is €600MM 2029 notes. Bonds value set-up in...

Evan Campbell, CFA

Tega Industries Ltd: Leap into the Global Big League with Molycop Acquisition

Tega Industries to acquire controlling stake in Molycop for $1.48 billion, transforming from niche Indian exporter to global leader in mineral...

Nimish Maheshwari

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

Apollo’s involvement strongly signals the viability of the Ito family MBO. 7&i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation.

Arun George

S&P500 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Flipping the COIN

Lennox International (LII US) - the top migration candidate - was announced as an addition to the S&P 500 on 18 December, soon after the quarterly...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

Constituent changes to the SnP500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector and the SnP500 Equal...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Reno De Medici (RM IM) SLB, Trade the High Risk YE2025 SPT Window

High probability of KPI miss for RDM, needing 6.2% cut to reach 2025 target by Dec 31st. Largest debt is €600MM 2029 notes. Bonds value set-up in...

Evan Campbell, CFA

Tega Industries Ltd: Leap into the Global Big League with Molycop Acquisition

​Tega Industries to acquire controlling stake in Molycop for $1.48 billion, transforming from niche Indian exporter to global leader in mineral...

Nimish Maheshwari

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): The MBO Is Still Alive and Kicking

Apollo’s involvement strongly signals the viability of the Ito family MBO. 7&i's underlying value supports a JPY8 trillion MBO valuation.

Arun George

S&P500 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Flipping the COIN

Lennox International (LII US) - the top migration candidate - was announced as an addition to the S&P 500 on 18 December, soon after the quarterly...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: US$17.7bn Round-Trip Trade Post Capping Cutoff

Constituent changes to the SnP500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector and the SnP500 Equal...

Brian Freitas

Tega Industries to acquire controlling stake in Molycop for $1.48 billion, transforming from niche Indian exporter to global leader in mineral...