IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$175 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. </li>
<li>Integral primarily targets investments in Japanese medium-sized companies and invests its own capital both through investments in funds under management and through direct investments.</li>
<li>The bull case rest on rising AUM, strong operating income growth, cash flow potential through material unrealised carried interest and solid potential returns on its principal investments.</li>
</ul>



Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$175 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. 
Integral primarily targets investments in Japanese medium-sized companies and invests its own capital both through investments in funds under management and through direct investments.
The bull case rest on rising AUM, strong operating income growth, cash flow potential through material unrealised carried interest and solid potential returns on its principal investments.


European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applus-services-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21249:1" rel="noopener">Applus Services SA (APPS SM),</a> whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter offer.</li>
<li>The market is capable of forcing Apollo to sweeten its proposal to reach 75% acceptances. Many risk arbitrageurs have positions in Applus and may not settle for the current premium.</li>
<li>This situation has been flagged for a while. If already long, it is worth holding for a possible better offer, which could come around €10/share, a 5.2% increase.</li>
</ul>


On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for Applus Services SA (APPS SM), whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter offer.
The market is capable of forcing Apollo to sweeten its proposal to reach 75% acceptances. Many risk arbitrageurs have positions in Applus and may not settle for the current premium.
This situation has been flagged for a while. If already long, it is worth holding for a possible better offer, which could come around €10/share, a 5.2% increase.


Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage

<ul>
<li>"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to Apollo. New PUSU deadline is 17 May.</li>
<li>As top shareholder of Vallourec, Apollo knows the sector. At the 240p offer proposal, Wood would be valued at an undemanding 5.7x EV/Fwd EBITDA on consensus numbers. </li>
<li>My fair value estimate is 261.7p (average of SOTP-multiples and DCF). There is value in the sector and Apollo may have turned a corner. Long.</li>
</ul>


"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to Apollo. New PUSU deadline is 17 May.
As top shareholder of Vallourec, Apollo knows the sector. At the 240p offer proposal, Wood would be valued at an undemanding 5.7x EV/Fwd EBITDA on consensus numbers. 
My fair value estimate is 261.7p (average of SOTP-multiples and DCF). There is value in the sector and Apollo may have turned a corner. Long.


Apollo/John Wood Group: Due Diligence Access

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The 18% spread suggests there the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management Inc (APO US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tenneco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6260:1" rel="noopener">Tenneco Inc (TEN US)</a> transaction is fraught with risks which, we believe, are more imaginary than real</li>
<li>With TEN shareholders expected to approve the merger next week, we assess regulatory obstacles low and the risk of APO reconsidering the transaction unlikely except in the most unexpected circumstances   </li>
<li>Overall we believe the risk-reward for arbs skews to the attractive with the opportunity to game IRRs in excess of 30%</li>
</ul>


The 18% spread suggests there the Apollo Global Management Inc (APO US) / Tenneco Inc (TEN US) transaction is fraught with risks which, we believe, are more imaginary than real
With TEN shareholders expected to approve the merger next week, we assess regulatory obstacles low and the risk of APO reconsidering the transaction unlikely except in the most unexpected circumstances   
Overall we believe the risk-reward for arbs skews to the attractive with the opportunity to game IRRs in excess of 30%


MergerTalk: Why We Think The Risk In Apollo's Tenneco Buy Out Is Overpriced

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

To understand FL Entertainment's $7.58 billion valuation, one only needs to look at the scope and scale of the underlying businesses that it encompasses.FL Entertainment is going to become the parent company of Television Production company Banijay and Online Sports betting operator Betclic once the transaction with Pegasus closesWhile both companies remain relatively unknown in the United States, the underlying operations target nearly every consumer and household across Europe and Australia.

To understand FL Entertainment's $7.58 billion valuation, one only needs to look at the scope and scale of the underlying businesses that it encompasses.FL Entertainment is going to become the parent company of Television Production company Banijay and Online Sports betting operator Betclic once the transaction with Pegasus closesWhile both companies remain relatively unknown in the United States, the underlying operations target nearly every consumer and household across Europe and Australia. 

United States

Apollo Global Management, Inc. operates as an alternative investment management company. The Company focuses on investing in yield, hybrid, and equity markets to generate retirement and investment income for clients. Apollo Global Management serves businesses and individuals worldwide.

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Apollo Global Management (APO US)

Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rest on rising AUM, strong operating income growth, cash flow potential through material unrealised carried interest and solid...

Arun George

Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage

On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for Applus, whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Apollo/John Wood Group: Due Diligence Access

"Feedback" from shareholders overturned numantine resistance from the Board of Wood, which has reluctantly decided to grant due diligence access to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MergerTalk: Why We Think The Risk In Apollo's Tenneco Buy Out Is Overpriced

Whether the oversized spread underestimates Apollo's commitment to the transaction terms or overestimates the deal's regulatory obstacles, either...

Robert Sassoon

Stay Tuned for This Deal

To understand FL Entertainment's $7.58 billion valuation, one only needs to look at the scope and scale of the underlying businesses that it...

subSPAC

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