Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group (4180 JP)</a> had been among our picks for TSE Prime promotion and we had recommended positioning for it. That worked. On 8 Dec they announced the promotion.</li>
<li>The company is now part of TSE Prime which means a TOPIX Inclusion at end-January and an upweight in April. More than 20% of TSE float to buy by end-April.</li>
<li>Share price performance has not kept pace with potential, and yesterday's BOJ decision saw a flurry of volume selling (bailing). Pre-IPO holder overhang may be the biggest "risk" here.</li>
</ul>



Appier Group (4180 JP) had been among our picks for TSE Prime promotion and we had recommended positioning for it. That worked. On 8 Dec they announced the promotion.
The company is now part of TSE Prime which means a TOPIX Inclusion at end-January and an upweight in April. More than 20% of TSE float to buy by end-April.
Share price performance has not kept pace with potential, and yesterday's BOJ decision saw a flurry of volume selling (bailing). Pre-IPO holder overhang may be the biggest "risk" here.


Appier (4180) - Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI is an exciting area of technology that has the potential to change how industries operate and consumers live their lives</li>
<li>There is a huge TAM, but it can be difficult for equity investors to gain meaningful exposure</li>
<li>We identify 22 Japanese stocks that are engaged in AI. We have two top picks </li>
</ul>


AI is an exciting area of technology that has the potential to change how industries operate and consumers live their lives
There is a huge TAM, but it can be difficult for equity investors to gain meaningful exposure
We identify 22 Japanese stocks that are engaged in AI. We have two top picks 


Artificial Intelligence | How to Play the Thematic in Japan

<ul>
<li>US stocks rose modestly after the Fed's third 25bp rate cut to 3.5-3.75%, signals one more in 2026 amid FOMC divisions and a likely January pause.</li>
<li>GE Vernova (+15%) raised 2028 revenue outlook to $52B (from $45B), backlog to $200B, cumulative FCF to $22B, doubled dividend, and increased buyback to $10B. +ve MHI </li>
<li>Accrete (4395 JP, +17%) pivots from legacy SMS via JV with Forward Edge-AI (in US MDA SHIELD program) for quantum-resistant cybersecurity, targeting Japan sectors with venture-style upside.</li>
</ul>


US stocks rose modestly after the Fed's third 25bp rate cut to 3.5-3.75%, signals one more in 2026 amid FOMC divisions and a likely January pause.
GE Vernova (+15%) raised 2028 revenue outlook to $52B (from $45B), backlog to $200B, cumulative FCF to $22B, doubled dividend, and increased buyback to $10B. +ve MHI 
Accrete (4395 JP, +17%) pivots from legacy SMS via JV with Forward Edge-AI (in US MDA SHIELD program) for quantum-resistant cybersecurity, targeting Japan sectors with venture-style upside.


Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-eyewear-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40217:1" rel="noopener">Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP)</a> continues to be our top pre-event pick for TOPIX Inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-concept-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34323:1" rel="noopener">Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP)</a> is another potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate but it is quite far away from being satisfy the main Section Transfer requirements.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) continues to be our top pre-event pick for TOPIX Inclusion.

Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) is another potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate but it is quite far away from being satisfy the main Section Transfer requirements.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)

<ul>
<li>The Japanese market ended the week on a mixed note, with the Nikkei 225 Index down 2.2%</li>
<li>Stocks moves were largely dictated by earnings. Furukawa's full year upward revision was a standout, while THK surprised the market with a punchy buyback</li>
<li>
<strong>Watchlist</strong>: ASICS continues to perform well and will upgrade its mid-term outlook this week. Nexon and Appier could be worth a look after recent stock price declines</li>
</ul>


The Japanese market ended the week on a mixed note, with the Nikkei 225 Index down 2.2%
Stocks moves were largely dictated by earnings. Furukawa's full year upward revision was a standout, while THK surprised the market with a punchy buyback

Watchlist: ASICS continues to perform well and will upgrade its mid-term outlook this week. Nexon and Appier could be worth a look after recent stock price declines


Japan Weekly | Mixed Market but Plenty Going On

Japan

Appier Group, Inc. provides artificial intelligence software as a service (AISaaS) services based on data-driven decisions. The Company offers data analysis for potential users predicting and acquiring, relationships building and maintaining, purchasing and action motivation, audience intelligence, and more. Appier Group serves clients across Asian.

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Appier Group (4180 JP)

Appier (4180) - Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk

The Appier IPO Price (¥1600) plus ¥100 has been strong resistance this year. Tuesday's BOJ surprise saw a sharp high-volume selldown. Paper hands...

Travis Lundy

Artificial Intelligence | How to Play the Thematic in Japan

AI is an exciting area of technology that has the potential to change how industries operate and consumers live their lives. We identify 22...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | One More Cut

US stocks rose after Fed rate cut, GE Vernova raises outlook, Accrete pivots to cybersecurity JV for quantum-resistant tech.

Mark Chadwick

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)

There are currently 83 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 90 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Weekly | Mixed Market but Plenty Going On

Japanese market ends week mixed, Nikkei 225 down 2.2%. Earnings drive stock moves, Furukawa's revision stands out, THK surprises with buyback....

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Appier (4180) - Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk

The Appier IPO Price (¥1600) plus ¥100 has been strong resistance this year. Tuesday's BOJ surprise saw a sharp high-volume selldown. Paper hands...

Travis Lundy

Artificial Intelligence | How to Play the Thematic in Japan

AI is an exciting area of technology that has the potential to change how industries operate and consumers live their lives. We identify 22...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | One More Cut

​US stocks rose after Fed rate cut, GE Vernova raises outlook, Accrete pivots to cybersecurity JV for quantum-resistant tech.

Mark Chadwick

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2025)

There are currently 83 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 90 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Weekly | Mixed Market but Plenty Going On

​Japanese market ends week mixed, Nikkei 225 down 2.2%. Earnings drive stock moves, Furukawa's revision stands out, THK surprises with buyback....

Mark Chadwick

US stocks rose after Fed rate cut, GE Vernova raises outlook, Accrete pivots to cybersecurity JV for quantum-resistant tech.

Japanese market ends week mixed, Nikkei 225 down 2.2%. Earnings drive stock moves, Furukawa's revision stands out, THK surprises with buyback....