Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan-Based AI company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group Inc (4180 JP)</a> announced they had resolved to prepare to apply to change its listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to the Prime Market.</li>
<li>Appier has confirmed that it meets the criteria for the TSE Growth Market but if they move to the Prime Market, that would trigger a TOPIX Inclusion Event.</li>
<li>Below is a look at Appier's potential to satisfy the Section Transfer Requirements and the upside potential of this event.</li>
</ul>


Japan-Based AI company Appier Group Inc (4180 JP) announced they had resolved to prepare to apply to change its listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to the Prime Market.
Appier has confirmed that it meets the criteria for the TSE Growth Market but if they move to the Prime Market, that would trigger a TOPIX Inclusion Event.
Below is a look at Appier's potential to satisfy the Section Transfer Requirements and the upside potential of this event.


TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event: Appier Group (4180 JP)

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Appier reported 4Q21 results on Monday with revenue beating consensus by 5% and EBITDA beating by 323%. </li>
<li>The company guided for ¥17.5bn in revenue, above consensus at ¥16.2bn but significantly below our guesstimate of ¥20.8bn. </li>
<li>However, a close look at trends in the US suggest that our initial estimate remains reasonable enough.</li>
</ul>


Appier reported 4Q21 results on Monday with revenue beating consensus by 5% and EBITDA beating by 323%. 
The company guided for ¥17.5bn in revenue, above consensus at ¥16.2bn but significantly below our guesstimate of ¥20.8bn. 
However, a close look at trends in the US suggest that our initial estimate remains reasonable enough.


Appier – Baby Thrown Out With the Bathwater Number One

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ExaWizards’ financial disclosures and track record are relatively limited making it difficult to create high-confidence forecasts. </li>
<li>However, what little information there is points to explosive growth potential. </li>
<li>Whether that potential will be realised is a question but our analysis suggests that the company’s execution potential is good.</li>
</ul>


ExaWizards’ financial disclosures and track record are relatively limited making it difficult to create high-confidence forecasts. 
However, what little information there is points to explosive growth potential. 
Whether that potential will be realised is a question but our analysis suggests that the company’s execution potential is good.


ExaWizards IPO – Latent Potential Abound

<ul>
<li>Following a strong return to growth in 3Q Appier is up 28%.</li>
<li>The company generated a positive EBITDA for the first time as margins continue to improve. </li>
<li>In addition, it highlighted its reliance on first party data which shields it from moves such as Apple’s decision to stop 3rd party tracking.</li>
</ul>


Following a strong return to growth in 3Q Appier is up 28%.
The company generated a positive EBITDA for the first time as margins continue to improve. 
In addition, it highlighted its reliance on first party data which shields it from moves such as Apple’s decision to stop 3rd party tracking.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<div>
<ul>
<li>Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. </li>
<li>
 The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain.  
</li>
<li>
We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs.  
</li>
<li>
Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.   
</li>
<li>Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price</li>
</ul>
</div>



Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. 

 The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain.  


We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs.  


Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.   

Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price



Money Forward (3994) - 30% Upside Despite Slower Growth

Japan

Appier Group, Inc. provides artificial intelligence software as a service (AISaaS) services based on data-driven decisions. The Company offers data analysis for potential users predicting and acquiring, relationships building and maintaining, purchasing and action motivation, audience intelligence, and more. Appier Group serves clients across Asian.

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Appier Group (4180 JP)

TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event: Appier Group (4180 JP)

AI company Appier Group is planning to move to TSE prime which might trigger a TOPIX Inclusion Event in the next few months and act as a catalyst...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Appier – Baby Thrown Out With the Bathwater Number One

We believe Appier has been the unfair victim of selling Mothers names, many of which are low quality. But Appier is not, and with some very...

Mio Kato

ExaWizards IPO – Latent Potential Abound

What little information ExaWizards has disclosed points to explosive growth potential and although the margin of error is large, our analysis...

Mio Kato

Appier – A Little Bit Special

Appier generated a positive EBITDA for the first time in 3Q and returned to QoQ growth prompting a 28% share price gain but with REAL AI technology...

Mio Kato

Money Forward (3994) - 30% Upside Despite Slower Growth

We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs. Even so, on a more conservative growth...

Mark Chadwick

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