Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline</li>
<li>Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared</li>
<li>PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Next Leap: 1Q25 Earnings Ahead and the 2nm Frontline
Is the Valuation Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC Valuation Compared
PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The US treasury and dollar markets have proven to be key participants in US trade negotiations.</li>
<li>In a battle of wills, Trump and Xi delay direct negotiations between the world's two largest economies.  Time is on China's side as consumer confidence plummets in US.</li>
<li>Regardless of the results of the trade negotiations, the co-dependent support dynamic for the US equity, dollar, and treasury markets is broken.</li>
</ul>


The US treasury and dollar markets have proven to be key participants in US trade negotiations.
In a battle of wills, Trump and Xi delay direct negotiations between the world's two largest economies.  Time is on China's side as consumer confidence plummets in US.
Regardless of the results of the trade negotiations, the co-dependent support dynamic for the US equity, dollar, and treasury markets is broken.


The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.</li>
<li>~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.</li>
<li>There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.</li>
</ul>


PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.


PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  </li>
<li>We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  </li>
</ul>


Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  
We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klarna Group, a Swedish fintech company and BNPL provider, filed for an IPO and submitted a registration statement F-1 form with the SEC.</li>
<li>The company believes that AI and product diversification will boost profitability in the coming years coupled with aggressive cost-cutting and better underwriting process.</li>
<li>However, Klarna delayed its planned IPO due to extreme volatility and Trump’s tariffs, which are a headwind for BNPL players, including Affirm and Klarna.</li>
</ul>


Klarna Group, a Swedish fintech company and BNPL provider, filed for an IPO and submitted a registration statement F-1 form with the SEC.
The company believes that AI and product diversification will boost profitability in the coming years coupled with aggressive cost-cutting and better underwriting process.
However, Klarna delayed its planned IPO due to extreme volatility and Trump’s tariffs, which are a headwind for BNPL players, including Affirm and Klarna.


Klarna IPO Preview: The Dominant BNPL Player in Europe, Trump’s Tariffs Are a Headwind

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!

US treasury and dollar markets are key participants in US trade negotiations.The co-dependent support dynamic for the equity, dollar, and treasury...

David Mudd

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Klarna IPO Preview: The Dominant BNPL Player in Europe, Trump’s Tariffs Are a Headwind

Klarna, a Swedish fintech player and the dominant BNPL player in Europe, plans to raise up to $1B in US IPO. I’m cautious about buying into...

Andrei Zakharov

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC 1Q25 Results & The 2nm Frontline; Mediatek Vs. TSMC Valuation; PC 1Q25 Data

​TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!

US treasury and dollar markets are key participants in US trade negotiations.The co-dependent support dynamic for the equity, dollar, and treasury...

David Mudd

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

​PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

​US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Klarna IPO Preview: The Dominant BNPL Player in Europe, Trump’s Tariffs Are a Headwind

Klarna, a Swedish fintech player and the dominant BNPL player in Europe, plans to raise up to $1B in US IPO. I’m cautious about buying into...

Andrei Zakharov

TSMC's strong 1Q25 earnings and focus on 2nm technology, Mediatek vs TSMC valuation compared, PC market sees 5% YoY growth with inflated shipments...

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.