Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AppLovin reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $1.92 billion, representing a 53% increase year-over-year but slightly below the midpoint of its guidance range.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA grew 58% year-over-year to about $1.61 billion, with margins expanding by roughly 300 basis points compared to the prior year, although just below guidance expectations.</li><li>Free cash flow for the quarter was $863 million, below the company's typical cadence due to timing of international tax and interest payments; the company expects conversion to normalize near 75% of adjusted EBITDA for the full year.</li></ul>

AppLovin reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $1.92 billion, representing a 53% increase year-over-year but slightly below the midpoint of its guidance range.Adjusted EBITDA grew 58% year-over-year to about $1.61 billion, with margins expanding by roughly 300 basis points compared to the prior year, although just below guidance expectations.Free cash flow for the quarter was $863 million, below the company's typical cadence due to timing of international tax and interest payments; the company expects conversion to normalize near 75% of adjusted EBITDA for the full year.

AppLovin’s $551 Million Buyback — Strong Cash Generation Meets A Bigger AI Bet!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in September 2025 - maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2025 - maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.


[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.

AppLovin (APP US) and Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

<ul><li>AppLovin, a company operating a technology platform primarily in mobile gaming advertising and expanding into broader consumer advertising, reported a first-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.84 billion, marking a 59% increase year-over-year and 11% sequential growth.</li><li>The company beat its guidance, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.56 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, representing an 85% margin, and free cash flow at $1.29 billion.</li><li>AppLovin’s management highlighted that margins expanded approximately 400 basis points from the prior year, and flow-through to EBITDA maintained high efficiency at 86%, indicating strong operating leverage.</li></ul>

AppLovin, a company operating a technology platform primarily in mobile gaming advertising and expanding into broader consumer advertising, reported a first-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.84 billion, marking a 59% increase year-over-year and 11% sequential growth.The company beat its guidance, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.56 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, representing an 85% margin, and free cash flow at $1.29 billion.AppLovin’s management highlighted that margins expanded approximately 400 basis points from the prior year, and flow-through to EBITDA maintained high efficiency at 86%, indicating strong operating leverage.

AppLovin’s 59% Revenue Growth — Can 84–85% Margins Hold As Spending Rises?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Nvidia stock price was down slightly yesterday, in response to stellar results and guidance. It probably reflects exhaustion after the SOXX’s ~60% rally in 2 months. </li>
<li>What about Software aka IGV ETF? Since end of March, the recovery has been a modest 20% with some stocks up more than 50%. A few stocks still look interesting. </li>
<li>Holding to the Hyperscalers has been 1) less volatile 2) more profitable than Software. The group is up 29% since end March ’26. </li>
</ul>


Nvidia stock price was down slightly yesterday, in response to stellar results and guidance. It probably reflects exhaustion after the SOXX’s ~60% rally in 2 months. 
What about Software aka IGV ETF? Since end of March, the recovery has been a modest 20% with some stocks up more than 50%. A few stocks still look interesting. 
Holding to the Hyperscalers has been 1) less volatile 2) more profitable than Software. The group is up 29% since end March ’26. 


SOXX, Hyperscalers and IGV. Slow Recovery in Software Names, a Few Catch-Up Opportunities

United States

AppLovin Corporation provides software solutions. The Company offers an end-to-end software that optimizes monetization, and uses machine learning to make data-driven marketing decisions for profitable growth. AppLovin serves clients worldwide.

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AppLovin (APP US)

AppLovin’s $551 Million Buyback — Strong Cash Generation Meets A Bigger AI Bet!

AppLovin reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $1.92 billion, representing a 53% increase year-over-year but slightly below the...

Baptista Research

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

We expect IBKR and possibly APP to join the S&P500 in September. We expect two deletes. MSTR has moved to second place BUT it has issues which...

Travis Lundy

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

AppLovin’s 59% Revenue Growth — Can 84–85% Margins Hold As Spending Rises?

AppLovin, a company operating a technology platform primarily in mobile gaming advertising and expanding into broader consumer advertising,...

Baptista Research

SOXX, Hyperscalers and IGV. Slow Recovery in Software Names, a Few Catch-Up Opportunities

Nvidia stock dips after strong results, Software ETF lags behind, Hyperscalers outperform in recent market trends. 4 Software catch-up opportunities.

Nicolas Baratte

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AppLovin’s $551 Million Buyback — Strong Cash Generation Meets A Bigger AI Bet!

AppLovin reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $1.92 billion, representing a 53% increase year-over-year but slightly below the...

Baptista Research

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

We expect IBKR and possibly APP to join the S&P500 in September. We expect two deletes. MSTR has moved to second place BUT it has issues which...

Travis Lundy

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

AppLovin’s 59% Revenue Growth — Can 84–85% Margins Hold As Spending Rises?

AppLovin, a company operating a technology platform primarily in mobile gaming advertising and expanding into broader consumer advertising,...

Baptista Research

SOXX, Hyperscalers and IGV. Slow Recovery in Software Names, a Few Catch-Up Opportunities

​Nvidia stock dips after strong results, Software ETF lags behind, Hyperscalers outperform in recent market trends. 4 Software catch-up opportunities.

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia stock dips after strong results, Software ETF lags behind, Hyperscalers outperform in recent market trends. 4 Software catch-up opportunities.