Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Universal Music Group | acquisition of Downtown Music likely to be blocked • Arcadis | enters into new 5-year framework agreement with Shell • PostNL | ACM raises concerns on proposed amendments Postal Act • E-commerce & Logistics | strong increase in peak season parcel volumes expected • Havas | denies being in talks with WPP on a possible takeover</li></ul>

In this edition: • Universal Music Group | acquisition of Downtown Music likely to be blocked • Arcadis | enters into new 5-year framework agreement with Shell • PostNL | ACM raises concerns on proposed amendments Postal Act • E-commerce & Logistics | strong increase in peak season parcel volumes expected • Havas | denies being in talks with WPP on a possible takeover

What's News in Amsterdam - 19 November (UMG | Arcadis | PostNL | Havas | E-commerce & Logistics)

<ul><li>In this edition: • ING | less than expected drop in earnings; new EUR 1.6bn share buyback • dsm-firmenich (‘DSFIR’) | results broadly in line; lowers FY25 guidance • Arcadis | 25Q3 results lagging market consensus (even helped by lower depreciation rate) • General Elections | D66 emerges as big winner; hard to predict new coalition</li></ul>

In this edition: • ING | less than expected drop in earnings; new EUR 1.6bn share buyback • dsm-firmenich (‘DSFIR’) | results broadly in line; lowers FY25 guidance • Arcadis | 25Q3 results lagging market consensus (even helped by lower depreciation rate) • General Elections | D66 emerges as big winner; hard to predict new coalition

What's News in Amsterdam - 30 October (dsm-firmenich | ING | Arcadis | General Elections)

<ul><li>In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon technology • Heineken | loses UEFA Club Competitions Sponsorship to AB Inbev • InPost | offer declared unconditional • Shell | completes Gulf of America asset sale • Arcadis | WSP Global withdraws proposed offer for the company</li></ul>

In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon technology • Heineken | loses UEFA Club Competitions Sponsorship to AB Inbev • InPost | offer declared unconditional • Shell | completes Gulf of America asset sale • Arcadis | WSP Global withdraws proposed offer for the company

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.</li>
<li>We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.</li>
<li>Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500</li>
</ul>


As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500


Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results and with NII in particular.</li>
<li>We feel that the FY25 NII guidance has been adequately substantiated in the FY25 results presentation slides.</li>
<li>We were also pleased wit the development in costs on an underlying basis. We feel that management’s guidance of flattish costs (excl. one-offs) is based on a clear foundation. </li>
</ul>


In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results and with NII in particular.
We feel that the FY25 NII guidance has been adequately substantiated in the FY25 results presentation slides.
We were also pleased wit the development in costs on an underlying basis. We feel that management’s guidance of flattish costs (excl. one-offs) is based on a clear foundation. 


Netherlands

Arcadis N.V. offers consulting and engineering services worldwide.  The Company performs feasibility studies, develops projects, offers financial and legal consulting services, assists in the permitting process, and offers design and maintenance services.

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Arcadis NV (ARCAD NA)

What's News in Amsterdam - 19 November (UMG | Arcadis | PostNL | Havas | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • Universal Music Group | acquisition of Downtown Music likely to be blocked • Arcadis | enters into new 5-year framework...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 30 October (dsm-firmenich | ING | Arcadis | General Elections)

In this edition: • ING | less than expected drop in earnings; new EUR 1.6bn share buyback • dsm-firmenich (‘DSFIR’) | results broadly in line;...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 23 September (Adyen | ASM Int'l | Heineken | InPost | Shell | Arcadis)

In this edition: • Adyen | to nominate Niclas Neglen as Chief Financial Officer • ASM International | launches breakthrough Flowable Carbon...

The IDEA!

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on $SPX, Now Also Upgrading Intermediate-Term Outlook to Bullish; Upgrading Technology $XLK $SMH...

Vermilion Research

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results...

The IDEA!

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