New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>March was another weak month for the sector as Middle East hostilities drove up interest rates.</li><li>Over the last six months, the property sector has swung from the third strongest six-month return over the last 30 years to the fifth largest decline.</li><li>In summary, share prices currently imply a c.5% long-bond yield, and we do not expect distributions will need to be cut.</li></ul>

March was another weak month for the sector as Middle East hostilities drove up interest rates.Over the last six months, the property sector has swung from the third strongest six-month return over the last 30 years to the fifth largest decline.In summary, share prices currently imply a c.5% long-bond yield, and we do not expect distributions will need to be cut.

<ul><li>The listed property sector continued its poor start to the year in February, down another -1.1%, taking year-to-date performance to -4.5%.</li><li>Net asset values and balance sheet gearing were largely stable.</li><li>The current discount to NTA is -21% compared to its long-run average of -1%.</li></ul>

The listed property sector continued its poor start to the year in February, down another -1.1%, taking year-to-date performance to -4.5%.Net asset values and balance sheet gearing were largely stable.The current discount to NTA is -21% compared to its long-run average of -1%.

Real Estate Reflections - Weak Share Prices, Stable Fundamentals

<ul><li>Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.</li><li>We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.</li><li>The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.</li></ul>

Falling short-term interest rates have swung sentiment in the listed property sector’s favour.We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in sector target prices.The NZ property sector rose +5.8% in September, outperforming the broader market, which was up +2.8%.

<ul><li>The NZ listed property sector has outperformed the broader NZ market, delivering a +6% outperformance versus a -4% decline in the broader market.</li><li>With asset values stabilizing and forward capital requirements modest, the use of dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) is now less necessary, making share buybacks an attractive option.</li><li>The high yields in the property sector appear sustainable due to robust tenant demand, fixed rental increases, and reduced debt costs.</li></ul>

The NZ listed property sector has outperformed the broader NZ market, delivering a +6% outperformance versus a -4% decline in the broader market.With asset values stabilizing and forward capital requirements modest, the use of dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) is now less necessary, making share buybacks an attractive option.The high yields in the property sector appear sustainable due to robust tenant demand, fixed rental increases, and reduced debt costs.

Real Estate Reflections Ahead at Halftime

<ul><li>After a soft few months, the listed-property sector had a strong May and is now flat year-to-date 2025, with reporting season generally positive despite increased vacancies in some areas.</li><li>Investment Boost policy is net positive for the property sector, offering tax deductions for newly completed structures, improving IRRs, and benefiting sector earnings.</li><li>Six property companies reported FY25 results with a stable outlook; however, the sector remains capital-constrained with gearing at or above target levels.</li></ul>

After a soft few months, the listed-property sector had a strong May and is now flat year-to-date 2025, with reporting season generally positive despite increased vacancies in some areas.Investment Boost policy is net positive for the property sector, offering tax deductions for newly completed structures, improving IRRs, and benefiting sector earnings.Six property companies reported FY25 results with a stable outlook; however, the sector remains capital-constrained with gearing at or above target levels.

New Zealand

Argosy Property Limited invests in and manages retail, commercial and industrial properties in New Zealand.

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Argosy Property (ARG NZ)

Real Estate Reflections Whipsaw

March was another weak month for the sector as Middle East hostilities drove up interest rates. Over the last six months, the property sector has...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Hot Property

We have rolled the lower forward interest rate curve through our models and adjusted our NAV assumptions, which drives a +3% to +9% increase in...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Ahead at Halftime

The NZ listed property sector has outperformed the broader NZ market, delivering a +6% outperformance versus a -4% decline in the broader market.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections On the Up

After a soft few months, the listed-property sector had a strong May and is now flat year-to-date 2025, with reporting season generally positive...

Forsyth Barr

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