AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors.</li><li>It also designs the custom AI chips that Google, Meta, OpenAI and others are building to rely less on Nvidia.</li><li>So whichever way the biggest buyers turn, the work runs through Broadcom, and the risk sits with a handful of very powerful customers.</li></ul>

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors.It also designs the custom AI chips that Google, Meta, OpenAI and others are building to rely less on Nvidia.So whichever way the biggest buyers turn, the work runs through Broadcom, and the risk sits with a handful of very powerful customers.

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with support levels at 1,477 and 1,470 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance levels at 1,494 and 1,500 points.</li><li>The CME FedWatch Tool anticipates that the Fed will continue its rate-cutting trajectory with an additional 25 bps reduction, bringing the fed funds rate to 4.75%, following a previous 50 bps cut.</li><li>The Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to reduce its interest rate by 25 bps to 4.75% in the upcoming meeting, marking the second cut this year.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with support levels at 1,477 and 1,470 points (10-day EMA) and the resistance levels at 1,494 and 1,500 points.The CME FedWatch Tool anticipates that the Fed will continue its rate-cutting trajectory with an additional 25 bps reduction, bringing the fed funds rate to 4.75%, following a previous 50 bps cut.The Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to reduce its interest rate by 25 bps to 4.75% in the upcoming meeting, marking the second cut this year.

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.</li>
<li>On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.</li>
<li>Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.</li>
</ul>


This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.
On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.
Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.


Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company on 18 June, with market cap topping US$3.34trn, though it has retreated by approx.16% from the peak.</li><li>AI demand remains strong, and Nvidia still dominates the AI chip market with over 90% market share, per GlobalData.</li><li>However, Nvidia’s QoQ revenue growth has slowed (2QFY24-1QFY25: 88%/34%/22%/18%) in the past few quarters given a high base (quarterly sales almost quadrupled to US$26bn in 1QFY25 from US$7bn in 1QFY24). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company on 18 June, with market cap topping US$3.34trn, though it has retreated by approx.16% from the peak.AI demand remains strong, and Nvidia still dominates the AI chip market with over 90% market share, per GlobalData.However, Nvidia’s QoQ revenue growth has slowed (2QFY24-1QFY25: 88%/34%/22%/18%) in the past few quarters given a high base (quarterly sales almost quadrupled to US$26bn in 1QFY25 from US$7bn in 1QFY24). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: AI Exposure Update

<ul><li>Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24).</li><li>FY1Q25 revenue beat Bloomberg consensus of US$24.7bn by 5.5%.</li><li>Data center revenue continued to soar and topped US$22.6bn, up 426.7% YoY and 22.6% QoQ (26.8% QoQ in FY4Q24).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24).FY1Q25 revenue beat Bloomberg consensus of US$24.7bn by 5.5%.Data center revenue continued to soar and topped US$22.6bn, up 426.7% YoY and 22.6% QoQ (26.8% QoQ in FY4Q24).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semi - Nvidia: To keep growing for longer

United States

Arista Networks Inc. provides cloud networking solutions for data-centers and computer environments. The Company offers ethernet switches, pass-through cards, transceivers, cards, and enhanced operating systems. Arista also provides host adapter solutions and networking services and markets its products globally.

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Arista Networks (ANET US)

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors. It also designs the custom...

The Physical Layer

US FOMC & BoE Meetings

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in a sideways-down pattern, with support levels at 1,477 and 1,470 points (10-day EMA) and the...

Krungthai XSpring

Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: AI Exposure Update

Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company on 18 June, with market cap topping US$3.34trn, though it has retreated by approx.16% from the peak.

CMB International

Semi - Nvidia: To keep growing for longer

Nvidia announced (22 May) FY1Q25 results. Quarterly revenue was US$26.0bn, up 262% YoY and 17.8% QoQ (22.0% QoQ in FY4Q24). FY1Q25 revenue beat. ...

CMB International

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