New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book value</li><li>It's a RYM problem, not a sector problem; three of the four operators are close to debt free in FY26/FY27</li><li>6x EV/annuity EBITDA with no debt in FY27/28 — an attractive proposition</li></ul>

The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book valueIt's a RYM problem, not a sector problem; three of the four operators are close to debt free in FY26/FY276x EV/annuity EBITDA with no debt in FY27/28 — an attractive proposition

Aged Care Sector: What If? Fast Track to Ex-Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Arvida Group (ARV) delivered a confident 1H23 result, slightly ahead of our expectations, driven by very strong resales gains partly offset by higher than expected operating expenses</li><li>Slowing down to speed up; three levers of growth may just be one too many in these markets</li><li>Pay parity for nurses: the signal and the noise</li></ul>

Arvida Group (ARV) delivered a confident 1H23 result, slightly ahead of our expectations, driven by very strong resales gains partly offset by higher than expected operating expensesSlowing down to speed up; three levers of growth may just be one too many in these marketsPay parity for nurses: the signal and the noise

Arvida Group: 1H23 Result — Slowing Down to Speed Up

<ul><li>Arvida Group (ARV) provided what could maybe be best described as a downgrade with a silver lining</li><li>The weakness versus our expectations is two-fold, and both relate to primarily the first fiscal quarter of the year</li><li>The silver lining was also two-fold; ARV recorded ~35% resale margins in 2Q23 as Arena Living sales picked up</li></ul>

Arvida Group (ARV) provided what could maybe be best described as a downgrade with a silver liningThe weakness versus our expectations is two-fold, and both relate to primarily the first fiscal quarter of the yearThe silver lining was also two-fold; ARV recorded ~35% resale margins in 2Q23 as Arena Living sales picked up

Arvida Group: Expectations Reduced but with a Silver Lining

<ul><li><p>Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021</p></li><li>COVID pricing buffer continues to shrink</li><li>Significant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run</li></ul>

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021COVID pricing buffer continues to shrinkSignificant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

<ul><li>The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years</li><li>Additional COVID buffer is largely exhausted</li><li>How much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort</li></ul>

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 yearsAdditional COVID buffer is largely exhaustedHow much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

New Zealand

Arvida Group Ltd owns and operates senior care living facilities in New Zealand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Arvida (ARV NZ)

Aged Care Sector: What If? Fast Track to Ex-Growth

The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book value, which suggests to us that the market is losing confidence not only...

Forsyth Barr

Arvida Group: 1H23 Result — Slowing Down to Speed Up

Arvida Group (ARV) delivered a confident 1H23 result, slightly ahead of our expectations, driven by very strong resales gains partly offset by...

Forsyth Barr

Arvida Group: Expectations Reduced but with a Silver Lining

Arvida Group (ARV) provided what could maybe be best described as a downgrade with a silver lining; the weakness versus our expectations is two...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aged Care Sector: What If? Fast Track to Ex-Growth

The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book value, which suggests to us that the market is losing confidence not only...

Forsyth Barr

Arvida Group: 1H23 Result — Slowing Down to Speed Up

Arvida Group (ARV) delivered a confident 1H23 result, slightly ahead of our expectations, driven by very strong resales gains partly offset by...

Forsyth Barr

Arvida Group: Expectations Reduced but with a Silver Lining

Arvida Group (ARV) provided what could maybe be best described as a downgrade with a silver lining; the weakness versus our expectations is two...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index