HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The 25H1 results of JD Health beat expectations. Due to the strong financial position/positive growth outlook, reasonable valuation of JD Health is P/S of 3 to 4x.</li>
<li>Ascletis announced Share Placing.If ASC30's Phase IIa data remain excellent, potential BD/licensing deal would drive valuation to HK$25bn. However, if clinical data is disappointing, valuation may fall below HK$12 billion.</li>
<li>Reasonable valuation of Hansoh is about RMB108-111 billion. So, the Placing Price of HK$36.30 per Placing Share is expensive. We think the valuation of Hansoh should be lower than BeiGene.</li>
</ul>


The 25H1 results of JD Health beat expectations. Due to the strong financial position/positive growth outlook, reasonable valuation of JD Health is P/S of 3 to 4x.
Ascletis announced Share Placing.If ASC30's Phase IIa data remain excellent, potential BD/licensing deal would drive valuation to HK$25bn. However, if clinical data is disappointing, valuation may fall below HK$12 billion.
Reasonable valuation of Hansoh is about RMB108-111 billion. So, the Placing Price of HK$36.30 per Placing Share is expensive. We think the valuation of Hansoh should be lower than BeiGene.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.24)-JD Health 25H1 Results, Hansoh Placement, Ascletis Pharma Placement

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascletis-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27265:1" rel="noopener">Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK)</a> announced the placement of 52.4M shares for subscription at HK$16.45 per share.</li>
<li>The company intends to use 90% of proceeds for further R&amp;D of its drug candidates with respect to both subcutaneously injected peptides and oral peptides, into clinical trials for obesity.</li>
<li>The company will take time to cash in fully from the commercialization efforts in near future, given the limited opportunity it has in terms of the drug pipeline basket.</li>
</ul>



Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK) announced the placement of 52.4M shares for subscription at HK$16.45 per share.
The company intends to use 90% of proceeds for further R&amp;D of its drug candidates with respect to both subcutaneously injected peptides and oral peptides, into clinical trials for obesity.
The company will take time to cash in fully from the commercialization efforts in near future, given the limited opportunity it has in terms of the drug pipeline basket.


Ascletis Pharma (1672 HK): Placement Bleak; Commercialization To Take Time; Lack Formidable Pipeline

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.</li>
<li>I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.</li>
<li>Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.


Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.</li>
<li>There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions. </li>
<li>I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.
There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions. 
I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.</li>
<li>Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.</li>
<li>I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.
Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.
I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

China

Ascletis Pharma is a fully integrated biotechnology company focused on the research, development, production, marketing, and sale of innovative pharmaceutical products. The company's marketed products include Ritonavir tablets, GANOVO®, and ASCLEVIR® for Hepatitis C, and it has a robust pipeline primarily in metabolic diseases, viral diseases, and oncology. Ascletis Pharma is headquartered in Hangzhou, China, and was founded in 2011.

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Ascletis Pharma (1672 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.24)-JD Health 25H1 Results, Hansoh Placement, Ascletis Pharma Placement

JD Health 25H1 strong financial position and positive growth outlook support 3-4x P/S.Ascletis' potential valuation hinges on ASC30's clinical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang