Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
Arm's AGI CPU deepens TSMC's advanced-node monopoly; every leading chip architecture now manufactures exclusively at TSMC.</li>
<li>
We forecast TSMC gross margins 200-400bps above consensus through FY2029E, implying 10-12% EPS upside not priced in.</li>
<li>
Accumulate on weakness: ~20x FY2026E earnings after a 14% pullback; we rate TSMC a Structural Long.</li>
</ul>



Arm's AGI CPU deepens TSMC's advanced-node monopoly; every leading chip architecture now manufactures exclusively at TSMC.

We forecast TSMC gross margins 200-400bps above consensus through FY2029E, implying 10-12% EPS upside not priced in.

Accumulate on weakness: ~20x FY2026E earnings after a 14% pullback; we rate TSMC a Structural Long.


TSMC: Arm's Foundry Exclusivity Reinforces Advanced Node Dominance & Margins Stronger for Longer

<ul>
<li>TSMC ADR premium compressed to +14.5%, nearly 6pts below its 2-year median of        +20.4%, signalling a potential trade in the ADR relative to the local. </li>
<li>ASE and UMC both trade at discounts to local shares (-3.0% and -2.0%), with ASE ADR   short interest dropping 20% even as Taiwan short interest climbs.</li>
<li>ChipMOS ADR short interest surged 141% to 37,452 shares, though on thin volume.</li>
</ul>


TSMC ADR premium compressed to +14.5%, nearly 6pts below its 2-year median of        +20.4%, signalling a potential trade in the ADR relative to the local. 
ASE and UMC both trade at discounts to local shares (-3.0% and -2.0%), with ASE ADR   short interest dropping 20% even as Taiwan short interest climbs.
ChipMOS ADR short interest surged 141% to 37,452 shares, though on thin volume.


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Compresses; ASE and UMC Flip to Discount

<ul>
<li>
TSMC: +15.9% Premium; Spread Has Crashed Through Our Long Entry Level at 19%; Consider Going Long</li>
<li>
UMC: -0.5% Discount; Significant ADR Conversion (+28.8M Units); Spread Fully Unwound</li>
<li>
ASE: -0.5% Discount; Spread Collapsed from +4.5% Premium; Consider Going Long</li>
</ul>



TSMC: +15.9% Premium; Spread Has Crashed Through Our Long Entry Level at 19%; Consider Going Long

UMC: -0.5% Discount; Significant ADR Conversion (+28.8M Units); Spread Fully Unwound

ASE: -0.5% Discount; Spread Collapsed from +4.5% Premium; Consider Going Long


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Broad Spread Collapse Across the Board; TSMC Below Long Entry Level

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.9% Premium; Spread Rebounded from Previous Lows; Maintain Key Long/Short Levels</li>
<li>UMC: +4.4% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Despite Recent Premium Resilience</li>
<li>ASE: +4.5% Premium; Rebounded from Near-Parity, Near Level to Short the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.9% Premium; Spread Rebounded from Previous Lows; Maintain Key Long/Short Levels
UMC: +4.4% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Despite Recent Premium Resilience
ASE: +4.5% Premium; Rebounded from Near-Parity, Near Level to Short the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Key Spreads After Long CNY Closure in Taiwan

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +19.7% Premium; Rebounds from Near-Term Lows, Latest View on Levels</li>
<li>UMC: +4.2% Premium; Opportunity to Short the ADR Price Premium</li>
<li>ChipMOS: +2.7% Premium; Opportunity to Short the ADR Price Premium</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +19.7% Premium; Rebounds from Near-Term Lows, Latest View on Levels
UMC: +4.2% Premium; Opportunity to Short the ADR Price Premium
ChipMOS: +2.7% Premium; Opportunity to Short the ADR Price Premium


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Opens Up Multiple Historical Range Breakouts

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

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ASE Technology Holding (ASX US)

TSMC: Arm's Foundry Exclusivity Reinforces Advanced Node Dominance & Margins Stronger for Longer

Arm's AGI CPU strengthens TSMC's hold on advanced-node manufacturing, with potential for higher margins and EPS upside. Accumulate on weakness for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Compresses; ASE and UMC Flip to Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Broad Spread Collapse Across the Board; TSMC Below Long Entry Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Key Spreads After Long CNY Closure in Taiwan

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Opens Up Multiple Historical Range Breakouts

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC: Arm's Foundry Exclusivity Reinforces Advanced Node Dominance & Margins Stronger for Longer

​Arm's AGI CPU strengthens TSMC's hold on advanced-node manufacturing, with potential for higher margins and EPS upside. Accumulate on weakness for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Compresses; ASE and UMC Flip to Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Broad Spread Collapse Across the Board; TSMC Below Long Entry Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Key Spreads After Long CNY Closure in Taiwan

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Opens Up Multiple Historical Range Breakouts

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Arm's AGI CPU strengthens TSMC's hold on advanced-node manufacturing, with potential for higher margins and EPS upside. Accumulate on weakness for...