Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's flow expectations for the September 2023 index rebalance.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, my estimate for the tracking AUM estimate assumption for September 2023 has increased and has caused changes to my flow expectations.</li>
<li>Separately, the SHORTs suggested in my last insight have underperformed the index by 15.6% in 3 weeks. I have updated my thoughts on that as well.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's flow expectations for the September 2023 index rebalance.
Since my last insight, my estimate for the tracking AUM estimate assumption for September 2023 has increased and has caused changes to my flow expectations.
Separately, the SHORTs suggested in my last insight have underperformed the index by 15.6% in 3 weeks. I have updated my thoughts on that as well.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep 23: AUM Assumption Changes Again; SHORTs Down 15.6% Vs Index

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.</li>
<li>There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.
There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 19 April, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 13.6% and a one-way trade of US$885m.</li>
<li>There are 10 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 19 April, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 13.6% and a one-way trade of US$885m.
There are 10 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

<ul>
<li>The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.</li>
<li>Stocks with buy flows dropped 1.82% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 1.03%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -2.01% vs +1.09%.</li>
<li>Given the large volumes at auction and the large moves on stocks, we cannot rule out the possibility that a lot of pre-positions were unwound at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
Stocks with buy flows dropped 1.82% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 1.03%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -2.01% vs +1.09%.
Given the large volumes at auction and the large moves on stocks, we cannot rule out the possibility that a lot of pre-positions were unwound at the close on Friday.


Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance

Taiwan

Asia Cement Corporation manufactures and sells cement, clinker, ready-mixed concrete, as well as granulated blast-furnace slag and fly ash.  The Company markets its cement and clinker products under the Skyscraper brand name.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Asia Cement (1102 TT)

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep 23: AUM Assumption Changes Again; SHORTs Down 15.6% Vs Index

Based on current data, I see one-way capping flows of US$145mn which translates to a turnover of roughly 2.0%. However, impacts are low for most...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance

The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep 23: AUM Assumption Changes Again; SHORTs Down 15.6% Vs Index

Based on current data, I see one-way capping flows of US$145mn which translates to a turnover of roughly 2.0%. However, impacts are low for most...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance

The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days....

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...