Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-September.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 6 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in May.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-September.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 6 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in May.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Crude oil prices have dropped sharply, with WTI and Brent falling 3-4% due to OPEC+'s decision to increase oil output to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding .  </li>
<li>This decline in oil prices could benefit India’s Oil Marketing Companies, paint, tyre, and aviation sectors, while negatively impacting upstream oil explorers and refineries.</li>
<li>Despite OPEC+'s move to ramp up production, global demand remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and oil prices are forecasted to stay low, affecting various sectors.</li>
</ul>


Crude oil prices have dropped sharply, with WTI and Brent falling 3-4% due to OPEC+'s decision to increase oil output to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding .  
This decline in oil prices could benefit India’s Oil Marketing Companies, paint, tyre, and aviation sectors, while negatively impacting upstream oil explorers and refineries.
Despite OPEC+'s move to ramp up production, global demand remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and oil prices are forecasted to stay low, affecting various sectors.


OPEC+ Pushes for Market Share, How India Can Benefit?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Our discretionary universe’s performance continues to be a mixed bag</li><li>Our coverage is expected to grow by ~16% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by a few outliers</li><li>Ex-new age and Trent, the universe is likely to grow at 11% alongside margin pressures as SSSGs remain weak (ranging from negative to lower single-digits)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Our discretionary universe’s performance continues to be a mixed bagOur coverage is expected to grow by ~16% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by a few outliersEx-new age and Trent, the universe is likely to grow at 11% alongside margin pressures as SSSGs remain weak (ranging from negative to lower single-digits)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary (Q4FY25 Results Preview): Q4FY25–a mixed bag

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We interact with our dealer network representing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a>  and Birla Opus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grasim-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:290:1" rel="noopener">Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN)</a> dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.</li>
<li>Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.</li>
</ul>


We interact with our dealer network representing Asian Paints (APNT IN)  and Birla Opus Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) dealers with an objective to understand the current operating environment.
Aggression in a slow-moving market will result in short-term market share gains for players like Birla Opus.
While Asian Paints (APNT IN) may appear to lose market share, we believe this would be transient in nature.


Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

<ul>
<li>Brent crude prices have fallen below $70 per barrel, driven by rising non-OPEC supply, weak global demand, and geopolitical shifts, easing inflationary pressures in oil-importing economies like India.</li>
<li>Lower crude prices benefit OMCs, paints, tyres, and aviation, boosting margins, while upstream oil producers and government revenue face pressure, creating a mixed impact on India's economy.</li>
<li>Oil prices may remain range-bound in the mid-$60s to $70s, with OPEC+ production strategies, global demand trends, and geopolitical risks shaping future market movements.</li>
</ul>


Brent crude prices have fallen below $70 per barrel, driven by rising non-OPEC supply, weak global demand, and geopolitical shifts, easing inflationary pressures in oil-importing economies like India.
Lower crude prices benefit OMCs, paints, tyres, and aviation, boosting margins, while upstream oil producers and government revenue face pressure, creating a mixed impact on India's economy.
Oil prices may remain range-bound in the mid-$60s to $70s, with OPEC+ production strategies, global demand trends, and geopolitical risks shaping future market movements.


How Is the Decline in Oil Prices Reshaping India’s Economy?

India

Asian Paints Limited manufactures a wide range of decorative paints, varnishes, enamels, and black & synthetic resins. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also manufactures specialty industrial chemicals and vinyl pyridine latex products which are used in the manufacture of rubber tires.

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Asian Paints (APNT IN)

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Consumer Discretionary (Q4FY25 Results Preview): Q4FY25–a mixed bag

Our discretionary universe’s performance continues to be a mixed bag. Our coverage is expected to grow by ~16% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by a few outliers

HDFC Securities

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

In this Insight, we interact with Paint Dealers to understand market dynamics; Birla Opus may gain short-term market share, while Asian Paints...

Pranav Bhavsar

How Is the Decline in Oil Prices Reshaping India’s Economy?

Falling Brent crude prices below $70/barrel benefit Indian economy through easing inflation, boosting certain industries, but pose challenges for...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

OPEC+ Pushes for Market Share, How India Can Benefit?

​OPEC+ decision to increase oil output leads to sharp drop in crude oil prices, benefiting some sectors in India but impacting others negatively,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Consumer Discretionary (Q4FY25 Results Preview): Q4FY25–a mixed bag

Our discretionary universe’s performance continues to be a mixed bag. Our coverage is expected to grow by ~16% YoY in Q4FY25, driven by a few outliers

HDFC Securities

Birla Opus | Short Term Gain, Long Term Pain

In this Insight, we interact with Paint Dealers to understand market dynamics; Birla Opus may gain short-term market share, while Asian Paints...

Pranav Bhavsar

How Is the Decline in Oil Prices Reshaping India’s Economy?

​Falling Brent crude prices below $70/barrel benefit Indian economy through easing inflation, boosting certain industries, but pose challenges for...

Nimish Maheshwari

OPEC+ decision to increase oil output leads to sharp drop in crude oil prices, benefiting some sectors in India but impacting others negatively,...

Falling Brent crude prices below $70/barrel benefit Indian economy through easing inflation, boosting certain industries, but pose challenges for...