Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.</li><li>ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\</li><li>Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.</li></ul>

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven</li>
<li>What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction </li>
<li>Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time</li>
</ul>


EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven
What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction 
Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time


TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

<ul>
<li>
Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.
</li>
<li>
TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.
</li>
<li>
ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!

</li>
</ul>



Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.


TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.


ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!




Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. </li>
<li>We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. </li>
<li>Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.</li>
</ul>


Irate U.S. politicians have gunned down their own tech sector, triggering declines of 7% to 20% among leading semiconductor equipment stocks outside China. 
We expect a bounce after such large declines - and further gains for Naura and AMEC in China. 
Investors now face difficult questions about the future of Chinese demand, the sustainability of the AI boom, and valuations. We are not optimistic.


Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation...

The IDEA!

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

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Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation...

The IDEA!

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

​CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Equipment Stocks: A Bounce Before the Reckoning

Reports of tighter US sanctions and Trump's comments about Taiwan have broken the momentum of SPE stocks. A bounce seems likely, but a scenario of...

Scott Foster

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....