External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASML's total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC</li><li>The company's share price recently experienced a significant two-day drop</li><li>Despite past reservations, the author sees potential for a good risk/reward opportunity in buying ASML stock due to better pricing and negative investor sentiment on lithography</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

ASML's total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMCThe company's share price recently experienced a significant two-day dropDespite past reservations, the author sees potential for a good risk/reward opportunity in buying ASML stock due to better pricing and negative investor sentiment on lithographyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) - Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>ASML CEO and delegation to visit TSMC, showcasing collaboration in semiconductor industry</li><li>US adds 13 firms, majority Chinese, to entity list amid ongoing tensions</li><li>Samsung Display to unveil 18.1-inch foldable OLED panel at CES 2025, showcasing advancements in display technology</li></ul>

ASML CEO and delegation to visit TSMC, showcasing collaboration in semiconductor industryUS adds 13 firms, majority Chinese, to entity list amid ongoing tensionsSamsung Display to unveil 18.1-inch foldable OLED panel at CES 2025, showcasing advancements in display technology

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Jan-2025): ASML CEO visits TSMC next week.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>A case against ASML being brought by the Hollywood Firefighters Pension Fund (HFPF) is now opening up into a class action lawsuit</li>
<li>Claims that ASML withheld crucial information from investors in the Jan-Oct 2024 time period, e.g. impact of US sanctions, strength of the semi recovery, order backlog etc. </li>
<li>In reality, ASML warned in October 2023 that 2024 would be a zero growth year. Did the HFPF think they were kidding?</li>
</ul>


A case against ASML being brought by the Hollywood Firefighters Pension Fund (HFPF) is now opening up into a class action lawsuit
Claims that ASML withheld crucial information from investors in the Jan-Oct 2024 time period, e.g. impact of US sanctions, strength of the semi recovery, order backlog etc. 
In reality, ASML warned in October 2023 that 2024 would be a zero growth year. Did the HFPF think they were kidding?


ASML. Class Action Lawsuit Looms As Share Price Declines 37% From Peak

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.</li>
<li>HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. </li>
<li>140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). </li>
</ul>


An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.
HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. 
140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). 


US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

<ul>
<li>Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.</li>
<li>Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.</li>
<li>ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.</li>
</ul>


Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.
Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.
ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.


ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) - Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024

ASML's total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC. The company's share price recently experienced a significant two-day...

Value Investors Club

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Jan-2025): ASML CEO visits TSMC next week.

ASML CEO to visit TSMC, US adds Chinese firms to entity list, AI predicted to dominate semiconductor market by 2030, Samsung Display to showcase...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

ASML revenue guidance reset yesterday comes from management exuberance in 2022. It is not obvious that it implies a “broad negative surprise” in...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) - Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024

ASML's total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC. The company's share price recently experienced a significant two-day...

Value Investors Club

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Jan-2025): ASML CEO visits TSMC next week.

ASML CEO to visit TSMC, US adds Chinese firms to entity list, AI predicted to dominate semiconductor market by 2030, Samsung Display to showcase...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASML. Class Action Lawsuit Looms As Share Price Declines 37% From Peak

Class action lawsuit looms over ASML execs. Claims they misled investors from Jan-Oct 2024. In reality they warned investors in Oct 2023 that 2024...

William Keating

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

​New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

ASML revenue guidance reset yesterday comes from management exuberance in 2022. It is not obvious that it implies a “broad negative surprise” in...

Nicolas Baratte

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...