Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We have also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Non-Technology pockets have done well in recent weeks as Technology has consolidated, and we believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29 can continue to work.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We have also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass.
Non-Technology pockets have done well in recent weeks as Technology has consolidated, and we believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29 can continue to work.


Technology Is Still in Charge Longer-Term But Rotation Trade Has Legs

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin.  Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling revenue growth across the AI enabler ecosystem.</li>
<li>The semiconductor chip sector has gone parabolic with an unsustainable rise in share prices.  The SOX momentum and % increase far exceed its rise during the Dotcom bubble period</li>
<li>The AI Memory subsector is the only segment that has significantly outperformed hyperscalers in both returns and fundamentals, primarily due to a structural high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle.</li>
</ul>


In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin.  Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling revenue growth across the AI enabler ecosystem.
The semiconductor chip sector has gone parabolic with an unsustainable rise in share prices.  The SOX momentum and % increase far exceed its rise during the Dotcom bubble period
The AI Memory subsector is the only segment that has significantly outperformed hyperscalers in both returns and fundamentals, primarily due to a structural high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supercycle.


THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision</li>
<li>As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.</li>
<li>While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision
As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.
While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.


Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize/PostNL | Amazon prepares 2nd own delivery station in the Netherlands • ASML Holding | US congress targets to impose strict new export restriction to China • Shell | Aramco CEO flags “scarily thin” global oil inventories</li></ul>

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize/PostNL | Amazon prepares 2nd own delivery station in the Netherlands • ASML Holding | US congress targets to impose strict new export restriction to China • Shell | Aramco CEO flags “scarily thin” global oil inventories

What's News in Amsterdam - 6 October (Ahold Delhaize/PostNL | ASML | Shell )

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>AI boom has lifted all semiconductor stocks to historical peaks; on traditional valuation metrics, nothing screens as cheap, with even cyclicals trading above long-term averages.</li>
<li>ROIC vs P/E highlights valuation stretch at the top (Nvidia, ASML), ROIC vs leverage shows balance sheet strength broadly intact, while growth vs returns reveals execution gaps (notably AMD).</li>
<li>
Preferred positioning: Overweight TSMC and memory; neutral Broadcom/Applied Materials; underweight Nvidia and ASML tactically; AMD remains the least attractive given return profile mismatch.</li>
</ul>


AI boom has lifted all semiconductor stocks to historical peaks; on traditional valuation metrics, nothing screens as cheap, with even cyclicals trading above long-term averages.
ROIC vs P/E highlights valuation stretch at the top (Nvidia, ASML), ROIC vs leverage shows balance sheet strength broadly intact, while growth vs returns reveals execution gaps (notably AMD).

Preferred positioning: Overweight TSMC and memory; neutral Broadcom/Applied Materials; underweight Nvidia and ASML tactically; AMD remains the least attractive given return profile mismatch.


AI Mania Well Priced: The Semiconductor Trade Turns from Euphoria to Discipline

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

Technology Is Still in Charge Longer-Term But Rotation Trade Has Legs

Technology is Still in Charge Longer-Term, But Rotation Trade Has Legs. We believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29...

Vermilion Research

THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin. Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling...

David Mudd

Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Buy Software Stocks $RBRK $FROG; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Buy Gold and Silver $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL. Normal Pullback is Over

Vermilion Research

What's News in Amsterdam - 6 October (Ahold Delhaize/PostNL | ASML | Shell )

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize/PostNL | Amazon prepares 2nd own delivery station in the Netherlands • ASML Holding | US congress targets to...

The IDEA!

AI Mania Well Priced: The Semiconductor Trade Turns from Euphoria to Discipline

AI boom boosts semiconductor stocks to historical highs, with valuation metrics signaling overvaluation for some top players like Nvidia and AMD....

Mo Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Technology Is Still in Charge Longer-Term But Rotation Trade Has Legs

Technology is Still in Charge Longer-Term, But Rotation Trade Has Legs. We believe the "rotation trade" that we have been recommending since May 29...

Vermilion Research

THE AI GOLD RUSH: Hyperscalers and Enablers

In the AI takeover of global markets, enablers are beating hyperscalers by an ever-widening margin. Hyperscalers' unprecedented capex is fueling...

David Mudd

Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Buy Software Stocks $RBRK $FROG; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Buy Gold and Silver $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL. Normal Pullback is Over

Vermilion Research

What's News in Amsterdam - 6 October (Ahold Delhaize/PostNL | ASML | Shell )

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize/PostNL | Amazon prepares 2nd own delivery station in the Netherlands • ASML Holding | US congress targets to...

The IDEA!

AI Mania Well Priced: The Semiconductor Trade Turns from Euphoria to Discipline

​AI boom boosts semiconductor stocks to historical highs, with valuation metrics signaling overvaluation for some top players like Nvidia and AMD....

Mo Aziz

AI boom boosts semiconductor stocks to historical highs, with valuation metrics signaling overvaluation for some top players like Nvidia and AMD....