Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | its main Dutch rival Jumbo reports steady growth in Belgium • ASML | collaboration with Canadian Xanadu broadens strategic relevance of lithography • TomTom | focus shifts to Enterprise for near-term revenue; auto cycle remains long-dated • TomTom | extends its partnership with citiEU; supports Enterprise strategy • Triodos Bank | 2026 SREP decision shows modest capital relief; buffers remain strong</li></ul>

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | its main Dutch rival Jumbo reports steady growth in Belgium • ASML | collaboration with Canadian Xanadu broadens strategic relevance of lithography • TomTom | focus shifts to Enterprise for near-term revenue; auto cycle remains long-dated • TomTom | extends its partnership with citiEU; supports Enterprise strategy • Triodos Bank | 2026 SREP decision shows modest capital relief; buffers remain strong

What's News in Amsterdam - 10 September (Ahold Delhaize | ASML | TomTom | Triodos)

Koninklijke Bam Groep Nv / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Kaufland launches Dutch marketplace; appears largely undifferentiated • ASML | following up on yesterday’s joint press release on High-NA with TSMC • PostNL | Dutch parcel peak on Monday highlights need for delivery-day choice • Ziggo Group | VodafoneZiggo sells mobile towers for EUR 669m • Dutch construction sector | new-build sales weaken as apartment inventory builds • Domestic household consumption | continued growth, albeit at a decelerating pace</li></ul>

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Kaufland launches Dutch marketplace; appears largely undifferentiated • ASML | following up on yesterday’s joint press release on High-NA with TSMC • PostNL | Dutch parcel peak on Monday highlights need for delivery-day choice • Ziggo Group | VodafoneZiggo sells mobile towers for EUR 669m • Dutch construction sector | new-build sales weaken as apartment inventory builds • Domestic household consumption | continued growth, albeit at a decelerating pace

Koninklijke BAM Groep NV - What's News in Amsterdam

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.</li><li>ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\</li><li>Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.</li></ul>

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and the stock. Let’s discuss earnings, and then I’ll talk about peak lithography and TSMC.ASML accidentally leaked earnings this week, and the leak wasn’t good. They beat Q3, but the issue was the outlook for next year and orders coming way below expectations. It’s funny because Q4 revenue is expected to accelerate, but no one is paying attention to that.\Memory was half of the measly 2.6 billion-order book and is likely driven more by DUV for HBM than logic High NA.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation with PKO Bank • E-commerce & Logistics | EU approves major customs overhaul targeting e-commerce parcel surge

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven</li>
<li>What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction </li>
<li>Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time</li>
</ul>


EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven
What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction 
Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time


TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

What's News in Amsterdam - 10 September (Ahold Delhaize | ASML | TomTom | Triodos)

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | its main Dutch rival Jumbo reports steady growth in Belgium • ASML | collaboration with Canadian Xanadu...

The IDEA!

Koninklijke BAM Groep NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Kaufland launches Dutch marketplace; appears largely undifferentiated • ASML | following up on yesterday’s...

The IDEA!

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation...

The IDEA!

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

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What's News in Amsterdam - 10 September (Ahold Delhaize | ASML | TomTom | Triodos)

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | its main Dutch rival Jumbo reports steady growth in Belgium • ASML | collaboration with Canadian Xanadu...

The IDEA!

Koninklijke BAM Groep NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | Kaufland launches Dutch marketplace; appears largely undifferentiated • ASML | following up on yesterday’s...

The IDEA!

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

I don’t think it’s been any secret that I’ve been a peak litho bear for quite some time. I think we are finally seeing reality hit the company and...

Fabricated Knowledge

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 September (ASML/TSMC | Allegro | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • ASML/TSMC | launch industry initiative for 12-inch High NA EUV photomasks • Allegro | introducing the next stage of cooperation...

The IDEA!

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

​CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....