Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor collapses like today's are led by memory chips, which are a commodity</li>
<li>The leading memory manufacturers: Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and WDC, have announced their 3Q22 earnings, with only Kioxia remaining.  All have suffered substantial revenue declines.</li>
<li>Memory prices are dropping to cost, and should remain at cost until demand catches back up with supply in late 2023</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor collapses like today's are led by memory chips, which are a commodity
The leading memory manufacturers: Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and WDC, have announced their 3Q22 earnings, with only Kioxia remaining.  All have suffered substantial revenue declines.
Memory prices are dropping to cost, and should remain at cost until demand catches back up with supply in late 2023


<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE / Technical Analysis

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP)

<ul>
<li>Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.</li>
<li>Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. </li>
<li>We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.
Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. 
We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.</li>
<li>The final rankings for the September 2026 review will be decided based on data as of the close of 31st August 2026.</li>
<li>We currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the September 2026 review, with the possibility of one more ADD/DEL pair.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly tracked European indices. The annual index review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.
The final rankings for the September 2026 review will be decided based on data as of the close of 31st August 2026.
We currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the September 2026 review, with the possibility of one more ADD/DEL pair.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: Annual Review Incoming; Two Changes So Far; US$3.8bn+ One-Way

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>2026 revenue growth now expected above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously). 1-3Q26 revenue growth YoY is 40% in NT$, 38% in US$ (guidance included).</li>
<li>2026 Capex raised to US$62bn, from US$54bn in January. Additional US$100bn in Arizona. The rumor mill was talking about $70bn capex in 2027 – that now looks low.</li>
<li>Margins are moving up: increasing utilization, increasing EUV and HPC in the mix, price hikes. YTD, NT$ net income up 63% YoY. Stock trading at 23.3x ‘26EPS and 17.2x ’27.</li>
</ul>


2026 revenue growth now expected above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously). 1-3Q26 revenue growth YoY is 40% in NT$, 38% in US$ (guidance included).
2026 Capex raised to US$62bn, from US$54bn in January. Additional US$100bn in Arizona. The rumor mill was talking about $70bn capex in 2027 – that now looks low.
Margins are moving up: increasing utilization, increasing EUV and HPC in the mix, price hikes. YTD, NT$ net income up 63% YoY. Stock trading at 23.3x ‘26EPS and 17.2x ’27.


TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

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Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a...

Vermilion Research

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The two ADDs and two DELs are well-flagged — the real question is whether Societe Generale can squeeze past the sector threshold test, which would...

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TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

TSMC's 2026 revenue growth expected to exceed 40%, with increased Capex and improving margins driving stock performance.

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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How Bad Is Today's Chip Collapse?

Do you understand the current chip collapse? It is following a path that it has followed in the past, and those who read this post can invest more...

Jim Handy

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: Annual Review Incoming; Two Changes So Far; US$3.8bn+ One-Way

The two ADDs and two DELs are well-flagged — the real question is whether Societe Generale can squeeze past the sector threshold test, which would...

Afridi Reyal

TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

​TSMC's 2026 revenue growth expected to exceed 40%, with increased Capex and improving margins driving stock performance.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC's 2026 revenue growth expected to exceed 40%, with increased Capex and improving margins driving stock performance.