Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

TSMC Q226. You Put All The Truth Together, It's Not The Truth

Decoding TSMC's Transition from Offence to Defence

ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

Nvidia GTC Taipei 2026 Financial Analyst Q&A. Executive Summary & Full Transcript.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>2026 revenue growth now expected above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously). 1-3Q26 revenue growth YoY is 40% in NT$, 38% in US$ (guidance included).</li>
<li>2026 Capex raised to US$62bn, from US$54bn in January. Additional US$100bn in Arizona. The rumor mill was talking about $70bn capex in 2027 – that now looks low.</li>
<li>Margins are moving up: increasing utilization, increasing EUV and HPC in the mix, price hikes. YTD, NT$ net income up 63% YoY. Stock trading at 23.3x ‘26EPS and 17.2x ’27.</li>
</ul>


2026 revenue growth now expected above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously). 1-3Q26 revenue growth YoY is 40% in NT$, 38% in US$ (guidance included).
2026 Capex raised to US$62bn, from US$54bn in January. Additional US$100bn in Arizona. The rumor mill was talking about $70bn capex in 2027 – that now looks low.
Margins are moving up: increasing utilization, increasing EUV and HPC in the mix, price hikes. YTD, NT$ net income up 63% YoY. Stock trading at 23.3x ‘26EPS and 17.2x ’27.


TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”