Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Evaluating Open-Weight LLMs For Our Structured Equity & Financial Research Agent

TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

TSMC Q226. You Put All The Truth Together, It's Not The Truth

Google Is Running Out of Money! Just Kidding! AI Capex Financing Versus Token Cost Decline.

Memory Is Still Your Best Friend. Memory Revenues Revised up Massively, Margins Expanding Further

Nvidia GTC Taipei 2026 Financial Analyst Q&A. Executive Summary & Full Transcript.

Broadcom: The Stock Is Falling -14% ! How Bad Was It? Not Really Bad But…

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We’re going thru another iteration of the “AI peak” theory, driven by Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flow. Coinciding with an “AI bubble” narrative, following the April-May stock rally.  </li>
<li>Stocks aren’t expensive. Semiconductors are trading at average PEx (17.7x forward EPS), Hyperscalers at -1 standard deviation (21.1x forward EPS). No valuations bubble. Expectations bubble? Consensus forecasts look reasonable.</li>
<li>Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flows is true. Increasing Debt issuance is true. Also true: Cloud revenues are accelerating, margins are expanding. Most extraordinary is the increase in Remaining Performance Obligations.</li>
</ul>


We’re going thru another iteration of the “AI peak” theory, driven by Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flow. Coinciding with an “AI bubble” narrative, following the April-May stock rally.  
Stocks aren’t expensive. Semiconductors are trading at average PEx (17.7x forward EPS), Hyperscalers at -1 standard deviation (21.1x forward EPS). No valuations bubble. Expectations bubble? Consensus forecasts look reasonable.
Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flows is true. Increasing Debt issuance is true. Also true: Cloud revenues are accelerating, margins are expanding. Most extraordinary is the increase in Remaining Performance Obligations.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

NVIDIA Corp

AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story