Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

ASML Q2 2026. Massive Capacity Expansion Plans Leave Markets Unmoved. But Why?

TSMC Q226. You Put All The Truth Together, It's Not The Truth

ASML: 1Q26 and 2Q26 Are Just Inline, 2026 Revenue Revised Up, but Consensus Already There

ASML: Very Large Increase in Bookings, 2026 Guidance Higher than Consensus: Is It a Big Deal?

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn. In 1Q26, revised up to 38bn. In 2Q26 revised up to 44bn. ASML gross margins estimates up from 52% to 56%.</li>
<li>EUV capacity increase by 30% in 2027, possibly another 30% in 2028. DUV capacity up 30%. This suggest 20-25% revenue growth, 2028 revenue at ~€65bn above 2030 target (€44-60bn).</li>
<li>This tells us that AI capacity increase is accelerating, both Logic and DRAM. This means that the discussions from end-clients to toolmakers cover several years of increasing demand. </li>
</ul>


In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn. In 1Q26, revised up to 38bn. In 2Q26 revised up to 44bn. ASML gross margins estimates up from 52% to 56%.
EUV capacity increase by 30% in 2027, possibly another 30% in 2028. DUV capacity up 30%. This suggest 20-25% revenue growth, 2028 revenue at ~€65bn above 2030 target (€44-60bn).
This tells us that AI capacity increase is accelerating, both Logic and DRAM. This means that the discussions from end-clients to toolmakers cover several years of increasing demand. 


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

ASML Holding NV

ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand