Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML: Very Large Increase in Bookings, 2026 Guidance Higher than Consensus: Is It a Big Deal?

ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML reported 1Q26: just inline. 2Q26 guidance: just inline. Management revised up 2026 revenue guidance by 4%. Consensus has already revised up. Maybe flat margins is a disappointment.</li>
<li>After ~60 EUV machines sold in 2026, management is targeting ~80 in 2027, with higher ASP. Capacity at ~90 EUV machines – let’s say that’s for 2028.</li>
<li>The stock is trading at 44x ‘26 EPS (20% EPS growth in ’26), 34x ’27 (30% EPS growth in ’27). Probably that’s why the stock is down -5% now</li>
</ul>


ASML reported 1Q26: just inline. 2Q26 guidance: just inline. Management revised up 2026 revenue guidance by 4%. Consensus has already revised up. Maybe flat margins is a disappointment.
After ~60 EUV machines sold in 2026, management is targeting ~80 in 2027, with higher ASP. Capacity at ~90 EUV machines – let’s say that’s for 2028.
The stock is trading at 44x ‘26 EPS (20% EPS growth in ’26), 34x ’27 (30% EPS growth in ’27). Probably that’s why the stock is down -5% now


ASML: 1Q26 and 2Q26 Are Just Inline, 2026 Revenue Revised Up, but Consensus Already There

ASML Holding NV

ASML: 1Q26 and 2Q26 Are Just Inline, 2026 Revenue Revised Up, but Consensus Already There