Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.</li>
<li>Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter</li>
<li>System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. </li>
</ul>


FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower than expected IBB revenues.
Broad-Based recovery is now looking more like a H1'24 scenario with lingering uncertainty as to how it quickly it will unfold thereafter
System sales to China increased from 8% of revenues in Q1'23 to 24% in Q2'23. Non-China DUV order cancellations are being snapped up by China at an unprecedented rate. 


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.</li>
<li>The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.</li>
<li>Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's results and guidance sparked a massive rally in the shares, marking one of the largest single-day increases in market cap in U.S. stock market history.
The company sees a multi-year growth cycle of data center upgrades ahead. Key supply chain partners TSMC and ASML are rising as well.
Wiwynn in Taiwan should be a key winner. We also highlight a potential wildcard smallcap AI play that we will investigate further.


Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>There’s been an avalanche of biased or disingenuous comments along the lines of “Samsung, TSMC won’t use High N.A. EUV” or “too expensive, too difficult”. </li>
<li>Samsung will use High NA in 4F² DRAM by 2028; TSMC in some but not all A14 processes by 2028. </li>
<li>We should really think about High NA as optionality value for ASML (share price), rather than a catalyst.</li>
</ul>


There’s been an avalanche of biased or disingenuous comments along the lines of “Samsung, TSMC won’t use High N.A. EUV” or “too expensive, too difficult”. 
Samsung will use High NA in 4F² DRAM by 2028; TSMC in some but not all A14 processes by 2028. 
We should really think about High NA as optionality value for ASML (share price), rather than a catalyst.


No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

<ul>
<li>More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. </li>
<li>Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.</li>
<li>China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. </li>
</ul>


More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it's declining in 2025-26. 
Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.
China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. 


China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by newly announced tariffs.</li><li>The company's total net sales reached €7.74 billion, slightly below analysts' expectations of €7.77 billion, although up from €5.29 billion a year earlier.</li><li>Net system sales contributed €5.7 billion, with €3.2 billion from Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems and €2.5 billion from non-EUV systems, while Installed Base Management sales totaled €2 billion.</li></ul>

ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by newly announced tariffs.The company's total net sales reached €7.74 billion, slightly below analysts' expectations of €7.77 billion, although up from €5.29 billion a year earlier.Net system sales contributed €5.7 billion, with €3.2 billion from Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) systems and €2.5 billion from non-EUV systems, while Installed Base Management sales totaled €2 billion.

ASML Dominates China’s Semiconductor Surge But What Lies Ahead?

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

ASML. Sanctions? Moi?

FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower IBB revenues. Semi recovery now a H1'24 scenario with uncertainty...

William Keating

Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

The company sees US$1 trillion of data center upgrades ahead. Our AI Leaders Basket constituents TSMC and ASML are rising as well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

Comments about Samsung and TSMC not using High NA EUV are misleading; both companies plan to implement it by 2028. High NA should be seen as...

Nicolas Baratte

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Dominates China’s Semiconductor Surge But What Lies Ahead?

ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASML. Sanctions? Moi?

FY'23 growth forecast increased despite push outs in the EUV order book and lower IBB revenues. Semi recovery now a H1'24 scenario with uncertainty...

William Keating

Nvidia Results Blow-Out: Multi-Year Growth Ahead; Wiwynn in Taiwan, Plus a Smallcap Wildcard AI Play

The company sees US$1 trillion of data center upgrades ahead. Our AI Leaders Basket constituents TSMC and ASML are rising as well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

No More High N.A. EUV (ASML Next Gen)? Not Accurate. High N.A. Will Come, but Slowly: 2028-29

Comments about Samsung and TSMC not using High NA EUV are misleading; both companies plan to implement it by 2028. High NA should be seen as...

Nicolas Baratte

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

​US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Dominates China’s Semiconductor Surge But What Lies Ahead?

ASML Holding NV reported its first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong financial performance but also heightened market uncertainty driven by...

Baptista Research

US to restrict export of Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms CXMT, SMIC, YMTC. Chinese vendors gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. China...