ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aspirasi-hidup-indonesia-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> released a solid set of FY2024 results, with SSSG and headline coming in ahead of expectations, with the company expanding its stores by 20 outlets. </li>
<li>The key concern from the results was the slower guidance for SSSG and sales for 2025, despite a more aggressive store rollout this year, especially outside Java.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aspirasi-hidup-indonesia-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia</a> continues to push the AZKO brand with higher promotional spend, offset by the lack of royalties to ACES US. Guidance looks conservative and valuations look attractive historically.  </li>
</ul>



Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) released a solid set of FY2024 results, with SSSG and headline coming in ahead of expectations, with the company expanding its stores by 20 outlets. 
The key concern from the results was the slower guidance for SSSG and sales for 2025, despite a more aggressive store rollout this year, especially outside Java.

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia continues to push the AZKO brand with higher promotional spend, offset by the lack of royalties to ACES US. Guidance looks conservative and valuations look attractive historically.  


Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Growing AZKO Stores and Private Label

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aspirasi-hidup-indonesia-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> has forged ahead with its rebranding after ending its licensing agreement with ACES US, changing its store branding to AZKO from 1st January 2025.</li>
<li>The new branding has already been rolled out to several stores but the company has given a 3-month window for all storefronts to be completed across Indonesia. </li>
<li>We view this rebranding exercise as an opportunity for the company to lift sales further through heavy promotions and a more aggressive store rollout. Valuations remain attractive relative to history.</li>
</ul>



Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) has forged ahead with its rebranding after ending its licensing agreement with ACES US, changing its store branding to AZKO from 1st January 2025.
The new branding has already been rolled out to several stores but the company has given a 3-month window for all storefronts to be completed across Indonesia. 
We view this rebranding exercise as an opportunity for the company to lift sales further through heavy promotions and a more aggressive store rollout. Valuations remain attractive relative to history.


Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Rebranded as AZKO

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk retails tools, home improvement products, lawn and garden supplies, plumbing, furniture, sporting goods, and pet supplies.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ)