Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices and the annual index review takes place in September every year.</li>
<li>The results of the market consultation were announced on 2nd October 2026, and three methodology changes will be phased in between September 2027 and September 2029.</li>
<li>There could be 3 ADDs and 3 DELs to the index if the supersector coverage removal were applied to the latest rankings.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
The results of the market consultation were announced on 2nd October 2026, and three methodology changes will be phased in between September 2027 and September 2029.
There could be 3 ADDs and 3 DELs to the index if the supersector coverage removal were applied to the latest rankings.


Quiddity ES50 Sep27: Market Consultation Impact; Supersector Test Over; Big Names In by 2029

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices and the annual index review takes place in September every year.</li>
<li>We expect capping flows in the December 2026 quarterly rebal and no fast-entry/exit index changes.</li>
<li>We also expect no changes at the September 2027 annual review, though a few names are near the border and some large names are held back by the sector test.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked European indices and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
We expect capping flows in the December 2026 quarterly rebal and no fast-entry/exit index changes.
We also expect no changes at the September 2027 annual review, though a few names are near the border and some large names are held back by the sector test.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep27: No Changes Likely; Sector Test Holding Big Names Back

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>AGCM has opened an in-depth review of Intesa/MPS, with specific concerns around local banking overlaps and Intesa’s prospective Generali stake.</li>
<li>Crédit Agricole’s 29.3% BPM holding raises the execution hurdle for MPS, although the revised synergy split strengthens the economics of the BPM-only route.</li>
<li>Our revised value is €11.85/share, slightly below spot. Intesa remains the likelier outcome, while BPM still looks the more realistic of MPS’s two bids.</li>
</ul>


AGCM has opened an in-depth review of Intesa/MPS, with specific concerns around local banking overlaps and Intesa’s prospective Generali stake.
Crédit Agricole’s 29.3% BPM holding raises the execution hurdle for MPS, although the revised synergy split strengthens the economics of the BPM-only route.
Our revised value is €11.85/share, slightly below spot. Intesa remains the likelier outcome, while BPM still looks the more realistic of MPS’s two bids.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Technical Analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)</li>
<li>We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.</li>
<li>Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX


Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Italy

Generali provides insurance and asset management services. The Company offers life and property and casualty insurance, and insurance solutions with ESG components, as well as asset management services. Generali serves clients worldwide.

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Assicurazioni Generali (G IM)

Quiddity ES50 Sep27: Market Consultation Impact; Supersector Test Over; Big Names In by 2029

Removing the supersector rule is a HUGE change to the index. Société Générale, ASM International and Assicurazioni Generali are the biggest...

Afridi Reyal

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep27: No Changes Likely; Sector Test Holding Big Names Back

We see potential ADD RWE GR close to the border for September 2027, but many things could shake up the rankings between now and the base date at...

Afridi Reyal

Intesa / MPS: One Bid, Two Headaches

AGCM has raised the remedy risk for Intesa just as Crédit Agricole hardens its stance on BPM. The Italian banking endgame now looks less...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan $HEDJ $DXJ; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts. $ACWI above $116. Buys in Financials,...

Vermilion Research

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