European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Unicredit & Crédit Agricole / Banco BPM: Divide and Bid

Intesa / MPS: Lovaglio Turns Defence Into Expansion

All Roads Lead to Siena: Intesa Moves on BMPS

Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>AGCM has opened an in-depth review of Intesa/MPS, with specific concerns around local banking overlaps and Intesa’s prospective Generali stake.</li>
<li>Crédit Agricole’s 29.3% BPM holding raises the execution hurdle for MPS, although the revised synergy split strengthens the economics of the BPM-only route.</li>
<li>Our revised value is €11.85/share, slightly below spot. Intesa remains the likelier outcome, while BPM still looks the more realistic of MPS’s two bids.</li>
</ul>


AGCM has opened an in-depth review of Intesa/MPS, with specific concerns around local banking overlaps and Intesa’s prospective Generali stake.
Crédit Agricole’s 29.3% BPM holding raises the execution hurdle for MPS, although the revised synergy split strengthens the economics of the BPM-only route.
Our revised value is €11.85/share, slightly below spot. Intesa remains the likelier outcome, while BPM still looks the more realistic of MPS’s two bids.


Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Intesa / MPS: One Bid, Two Headaches