European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Intesa / MPS: Lovaglio Turns Defence Into Expansion

Unicredit & Crédit Agricole / Banco BPM: Divide and Bid

Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

All Roads Lead to Siena: Intesa Moves on BMPS

BMPS–Mediobanca: Delisting Decision Crystallises the Endgame — “what Now?”

BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?

Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>Banco BPM has withdrawn from merger talks after Crédit Agricole objected, leaving Intesa’s unsolicited offer as the only developed transaction; Rome says its 4.86% stake will not disrupt the process.</li>
<li>At 6 August closes, Intesa’s offer implied €11.875 per MPS share versus €11.878 spot, leaving the spread effectively flat after narrowing 322bp since our June initiation.</li>
<li>Our expected value is €12.06, 1.5% above spot, but existing terms offer no return; the trade still depends on a sweetener, with materially greater downside in delay or break.</li>
</ul>


Banco BPM has withdrawn from merger talks after Crédit Agricole objected, leaving Intesa’s unsolicited offer as the only developed transaction; Rome says its 4.86% stake will not disrupt the process.
At 6 August closes, Intesa’s offer implied €11.875 per MPS share versus €11.878 spot, leaving the spread effectively flat after narrowing 322bp since our June initiation.
Our expected value is €12.06, 1.5% above spot, but existing terms offer no return; the trade still depends on a sweetener, with materially greater downside in delay or break.


Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Intesa–MPS: One Bid Left, but No Carry