European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event Update: UniCredit Withdraws BPM Offer — End of the Line

Intesa / MPS: Lovaglio Turns Defence Into Expansion

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Crédit Agricole already owns 29.3% of Banco BPM, leaving only a modest gap to the roughly one-third share it is reportedly expected to receive in a break-up.</li>
<li>A plausible split would leave UniCredit with most of BPM’s Commercial and CIB businesses, while CA takes Agos, insurance links and selected branches or customers.</li>
<li>We value a joint UniCredit/CA transaction at €18.50/share versus BAMI at €16.40; our probability-weighted value is €16.87.</li>
</ul>


Crédit Agricole already owns 29.3% of Banco BPM, leaving only a modest gap to the roughly one-third share it is reportedly expected to receive in a break-up.
A plausible split would leave UniCredit with most of BPM’s Commercial and CIB businesses, while CA takes Agos, insurance links and selected branches or customers.
We value a joint UniCredit/CA transaction at €18.50/share versus BAMI at €16.40; our probability-weighted value is €16.87.


Unicredit & Crédit Agricole / Banco BPM: Divide and Bid