European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Intesa / MPS: Lovaglio Turns Defence Into Expansion

Unicredit & Crédit Agricole / Banco BPM: Divide and Bid

Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>Intesa has raised its offer to €11.375/share, only 0.9% above MPS, while making approval of the BAMI/BGN plan incompatible with its bid.</li>
<li>Delfin’s 17.6% Backing strengthens Intesa ahead of the 29 October vote, but Lovaglio still offers shareholders exposure to further consolidation upside.</li>
<li>Our probability-weighted value is €11.64/share, 3.2% above spot; upside beyond Intesa comes from a further sweetener or the MPS-led strategy.</li>
</ul>


Intesa has raised its offer to €11.375/share, only 0.9% above MPS, while making approval of the BAMI/BGN plan incompatible with its bid.
Delfin’s 17.6% Backing strengthens Intesa ahead of the 29 October vote, but Lovaglio still offers shareholders exposure to further consolidation upside.
Our probability-weighted value is €11.64/share, 3.2% above spot; upside beyond Intesa comes from a further sweetener or the MPS-led strategy.


Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Intesa / MPS: For a Few Cents More