European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

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Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>ISP launches an unsolicited offer for BMPS: 1.6 ISP shares plus €1 cash. Using 9 June closes, implied €10.03 vs €10.37 spot, leaving a −3.24% gross spread.</li>
<li>The bid looks pre-emptive versus Banco BPM’s “merger of equals” approach. BMPS’ Mediobanca stake and merger plan complicate the stack; the register is block-driven, so pricing is negotiable.</li>
<li>This is not carry: long BMPS/short 1.6×ISP pays for optionality on a sweetener, a competing outcome, or ISP share upside. Base-case EV is ~€10.41 per share (+0.39%).</li>
</ul>


ISP launches an unsolicited offer for BMPS: 1.6 ISP shares plus €1 cash. Using 9 June closes, implied €10.03 vs €10.37 spot, leaving a −3.24% gross spread.
The bid looks pre-emptive versus Banco BPM’s “merger of equals” approach. BMPS’ Mediobanca stake and merger plan complicate the stack; the register is block-driven, so pricing is negotiable.
This is not carry: long BMPS/short 1.6×ISP pays for optionality on a sweetener, a competing outcome, or ISP share upside. Base-case EV is ~€10.41 per share (+0.39%).


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