European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

All Roads Lead to Siena: Intesa Moves on BMPS

Intesa / MPS: Lovaglio Turns Defence Into Expansion

BMPS–Mediobanca: Super-Majority Secured; Final Day Setup

BMPS–Mediobanca: Control Secured; Re-Open Week Sets the Next Leg

BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BMPS has formally chosen the delist-and-merge route for Mediobanca; MB’s board has launched the adviser-led integration process. Next hard catalyst is BMPS’s combined strategic plan on 27 Feb.</li>
<li>Today’s repricing looks “real money”: MB closed €19.18 on &gt;€100m turnover; BMPS €8.558 on &gt;€325m. MB now trades as minority clean-up optionality, not tender-mechanics carry.</li>
<li>The 2025 2.533×BMPS+€0.90 formula is a reference, not an arb anchor. Preferred setup: long MB with lighter beta hedge; avoid a full 2.533 ratio hedge until terms/mechanism are disclosed.</li>
</ul>


BMPS has formally chosen the delist-and-merge route for Mediobanca; MB’s board has launched the adviser-led integration process. Next hard catalyst is BMPS’s combined strategic plan on 27 Feb.
Today’s repricing looks “real money”: MB closed €19.18 on &gt;€100m turnover; BMPS €8.558 on &gt;€325m. MB now trades as minority clean-up optionality, not tender-mechanics carry.
The 2025 2.533×BMPS+€0.90 formula is a reference, not an arb anchor. Preferred setup: long MB with lighter beta hedge; avoid a full 2.533 ratio hedge until terms/mechanism are disclosed.


Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

BMPS–Mediobanca: Delisting Decision Crystallises the Endgame — “what Now?”