Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Special Situation Investments

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Assura is involved in a potential bidding war with KKR and PHP, both having made acquisition offers. </li><li>KKR's offer is 49.4p/share, while PHP's revised offer is 0.3769 PHP shares plus 12.5p/share in cash. </li><li>Glazer increased its stake in Assura to 2.9%, indicating expectations of a bidding war with minimal downside.</li></ul>

Assura is involved in a potential bidding war with KKR and PHP, both having made acquisition offers. KKR's offer is 49.4p/share, while PHP's revised offer is 0.3769 PHP shares plus 12.5p/share in cash. Glazer increased its stake in Assura to 2.9%, indicating expectations of a bidding war with minimal downside.

Assura Attracts Bidding War Potential: KKR and PHP Compete Amid Strategic Synergies and Market Dynamics

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Assura draws competing offers: KKR offers 49.4p cash per share, while PHP counters with a 50.53p blend of cash and stock, sparking a rare UK healthcare REIT bidding war.</li>
<li>With pro forma LTV below 50% and strong interest coverage, PHP can raise its cash component by 2–3p/share without losing investment-grade status; PUSU deadline looms 14 June.</li>
<li>Arbitrage investors can go long Assura and hedge PHP exposure via CFDs at a 0.3769 ratio, isolating deal spread upside while managing market risk.</li>
</ul>


Assura draws competing offers: KKR offers 49.4p cash per share, while PHP counters with a 50.53p blend of cash and stock, sparking a rare UK healthcare REIT bidding war.
With pro forma LTV below 50% and strong interest coverage, PHP can raise its cash component by 2–3p/share without losing investment-grade status; PUSU deadline looms 14 June.
Arbitrage investors can go long Assura and hedge PHP exposure via CFDs at a 0.3769 ratio, isolating deal spread upside while managing market risk.


Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

<ul>
<li>KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.</li>
<li>PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.</li>
<li>The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.
PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.
The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.


<ul>
<li>With a 75.6% estimated probability, the Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak is highly likely, given board support and minimal offer sweetening, signaling no further bid increases.</li>
<li>Fair Valuation: The 49.4p per share offer represents a 32% premium to pre-bid trading levels, aligning with Assura’s NAV, and exceeding PHP’s rejected 43p per share merger proposal.</li>
<li>KKR may extract cost savings from Assura’s 12% EPRA cost ratio, potentially saving £3+ million annually, alongside additional efficiencies from delisting and financial restructuring.</li>
</ul>


With a 75.6% estimated probability, the Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak is highly likely, given board support and minimal offer sweetening, signaling no further bid increases.
Fair Valuation: The 49.4p per share offer represents a 32% premium to pre-bid trading levels, aligning with Assura’s NAV, and exceeding PHP’s rejected 43p per share merger proposal.
KKR may extract cost savings from Assura’s 12% EPRA cost ratio, potentially saving £3+ million annually, alongside additional efficiencies from delisting and financial restructuring.


Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

<ul>
<li>Takeover Interest: KKR proposed a 48.0p per share bid for Assura, a 28.2% premium to its last closing price but a 2.8% discount to its 49.4p NAV.</li>
<li>Financial Position: Assura reported £157.8M in revenue (+4.92% YoY) and reduced net losses from £119.2M to £28.6M, showing improved operational performance, which could support a sweetened offer.</li>
<li>With Assura trading at 42.6p against KKR’s 48.0p bid, the gross spread is 12.7%, implying a 74.3% market-implied probability of deal success using a 37.44p break price.</li>
</ul>


Takeover Interest: KKR proposed a 48.0p per share bid for Assura, a 28.2% premium to its last closing price but a 2.8% discount to its 49.4p NAV.
Financial Position: Assura reported £157.8M in revenue (+4.92% YoY) and reduced net losses from £119.2M to £28.6M, showing improved operational performance, which could support a sweetened offer.
With Assura trading at 42.6p against KKR’s 48.0p bid, the gross spread is 12.7%, implying a 74.3% market-implied probability of deal success using a 37.44p break price.


United Kingdom

Assura PLC is a primary healthcare property group. The Company is a long-term investor and developer of primary care property. Assura works with general practitioners, health professionals and National Health Services to deliver patient care. The properties are leased to General practitioner practices and Primary Care Trusts.

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Assura PLC (AGR LN)

Assura Attracts Bidding War Potential: KKR and PHP Compete Amid Strategic Synergies and Market Dynamics

Assura is involved in a potential bidding war with KKR and PHP, both having made acquisition offers.

Special Situation Investments

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Assura is the target of a rare UK real estate bidding war. With KKR offering certainty and PHP offering a higher blended price, arbitrage investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura in the Crosshairs

KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak highly probable with board support and minimal offer sweetening, fair valuation at 49.4p per share, potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR/Assura: Possible Sweetened Offer

KKR proposes 48.0p bid for Assura, showing interest in takeover. Assura's improved financial performance may support a higher offer. Market...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Assura Attracts Bidding War Potential: KKR and PHP Compete Amid Strategic Synergies and Market Dynamics

Assura is involved in a potential bidding war with KKR and PHP, both having made acquisition offers.

Special Situation Investments

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Assura is the target of a rare UK real estate bidding war. With KKR offering certainty and PHP offering a higher blended price, arbitrage investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura in the Crosshairs

​KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura's Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

​Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak highly probable with board support and minimal offer sweetening, fair valuation at 49.4p per share, potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR/Assura: Possible Sweetened Offer

​KKR proposes 48.0p bid for Assura, showing interest in takeover. Assura's improved financial performance may support a higher offer. Market...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak highly probable with board support and minimal offer sweetening, fair valuation at 49.4p per share, potential...

KKR proposes 48.0p bid for Assura, showing interest in takeover. Assura's improved financial performance may support a higher offer. Market...