Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ironwood-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15743:1" rel="noopener">Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc (IRWD US)'s</a> sole marketed drug Linzess is the #1 prescribed branded treatment in the U.S. for adults with IBS-C/CIC with ~4M unique patients since launch.</li>
<li>First commercialized in December 2012, Linzess achieved blockbuster drug status in 2021. The earliest licensed entry of any generic Linzess in the U.S. is expected only in March 2029.</li>
<li>The company’s potential drug candidate IW-3300 is in phase 1 trial for interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (IC/BPS). Recently, Ironwood has shared positive findings from the study.  </li>
</ul>



Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc (IRWD US)'s sole marketed drug Linzess is the #1 prescribed branded treatment in the U.S. for adults with IBS-C/CIC with ~4M unique patients since launch.
First commercialized in December 2012, Linzess achieved blockbuster drug status in 2021. The earliest licensed entry of any generic Linzess in the U.S. is expected only in March 2029.
The company’s potential drug candidate IW-3300 is in phase 1 trial for interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (IC/BPS). Recently, Ironwood has shared positive findings from the study.  


Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD US): Brand Leadership of Linzess Continues; Pipeline Advances

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> started 2022 on a strong note, with 13% y/y revenue growth in Q1. Growth was driven by four global products, which contributed 36% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Otsuka has terminated its global license agreements with Akebia Therapeutics related to vadadustat for the treatment of renal anemia and recorded an impairment loss of ¥24 billion.</li>
<li>Despite the impairment losses related to vadadustat, Otsuka reiterated 2022 guidance and expects double-digit growth in operating and net profits.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) started 2022 on a strong note, with 13% y/y revenue growth in Q1. Growth was driven by four global products, which contributed 36% of total revenue.
Otsuka has terminated its global license agreements with Akebia Therapeutics related to vadadustat for the treatment of renal anemia and recorded an impairment loss of ¥24 billion.
Despite the impairment losses related to vadadustat, Otsuka reiterated 2022 guidance and expects double-digit growth in operating and net profits.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) 1Q22: Global Products Continued Double-Digit Revenue Growth

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-dainippon-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a>'s flagship drug Latuda will loss patent protection in the U.S. in 2023. Latuda is already seeing revenue erosion.  </li>
<li>Sumitomo is expected to reap the benefit of new products launched in the U.S. market in 2020 and 2021. These are expected to gradually become next growth drivers.  </li>
<li>The company has a rich pipeline and targets to launch at least two new drugs in the U.S. in next two years.  </li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)'s flagship drug Latuda will loss patent protection in the U.S. in 2023. Latuda is already seeing revenue erosion.  
Sumitomo is expected to reap the benefit of new products launched in the U.S. market in 2020 and 2021. These are expected to gradually become next growth drivers.  
The company has a rich pipeline and targets to launch at least two new drugs in the U.S. in next two years.  


Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP): New Launches Ensure Post-Latuda Growth Trajectory

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported 4QFY03/2022 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 13.4% YoY to JPY873.3bn (vs consensus JPY825.7bn) while the company reported operating losses of JPY1.7bn.</li>
<li>Revenue from Top 14 drugs grew 20.3% YoY, while revenue from top-seller Entyvio grew 15.0% YoY during the quarter. Excluding Entyvio, other top 13 drugs grew 23.3% during the period.</li>
<li>Takeda’s shares moved down 2.0% at the end of yesterday’s trading and down 3% during today’s trade as profit drop disappointed the market.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 4QFY03/2022 results yesterday. Reported revenue grew 13.4% YoY to JPY873.3bn (vs consensus JPY825.7bn) while the company reported operating losses of JPY1.7bn.
Revenue from Top 14 drugs grew 20.3% YoY, while revenue from top-seller Entyvio grew 15.0% YoY during the quarter. Excluding Entyvio, other top 13 drugs grew 23.3% during the period.
Takeda’s shares moved down 2.0% at the end of yesterday’s trading and down 3% during today’s trade as profit drop disappointed the market.


Takeda 4QFY22: Top Line Expands and Pipeline Development Progresses Despite OP Drop

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. </li>
</ul>


If BHP Group (BHP AU) announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.

Bank of East Asia (23 HK)is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.
The Sydney Airport (SYD AU) selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

Japan

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of Urology, Immunology including Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience and DM Complications and Metabolic Diseases. With over 17,000 global employees, Astellas researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia

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Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD US): Brand Leadership of Linzess Continues; Pipeline Advances

Ironwood’s flagship drug Linzess achieved blockbuster status in 2021 and is still growing by low single digit. Two pipeline GI drug candidates...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) 1Q22: Global Products Continued Double-Digit Revenue Growth

Otsuka reported 13% y/y revenue growth in Q1, driven by four global products and reiterated 2022 guidance. Despite recent pipeline blues, Otsuka’s...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP): New Launches Ensure Post-Latuda Growth Trajectory

Sumitomo is on right track to alleviate patent cliff through new launches in the U.S. The company’s three new U.S. products have potential for...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda 4QFY22: Top Line Expands and Pipeline Development Progresses Despite OP Drop

The decline in OP was due to divestitures which remained a key headwind for margins during the last fiscal year. Excluding these, core OP for 4Q...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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